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19:06
Apr 15
Apr 15
HSY
BIZD
WTI
SPY
NESR
▾
Hershey attractive due to price drop.
Bought Hershey because cocoa prices have been going down, it has a 3% dividend, and the stock is well off its high, making it attractive for value investment.
HSY LONG
Avoid private credit due to illiquidity and risk.
Private credit is illiquid, overpriced, with many companies having negative free cash flow and interest coverage below one, and redemption gates are up, making it risky and unattractive for investors.
BIZD AVOID
Oil higher for longer, buy on dips.
Oil will be higher for longer than people expect due to geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz and supply disruptions, and it's a good investment especially when prices are down, as seen in recent declines.
WTI LONG
Avoid chasing the general market now.
He wouldn't chase the general market now because people are trading on hope and chasing the market up, and he expects weakness over the next two quarters, though not necessarily a bear market.
SPY AVOID
National Energy Services benefits from Middle East work.
National Energy Services Reunited does all its work in the Middle East, and with the region messed up due to conflict, there will be a lot of work for such companies, driving business.
NESR LONG
DHT Maritime has high yield and conflict benefit.
DHT Maritime is a tanker company yielding about 9.5%, and it benefits from the Middle East conflict situation, making it a good income and growth play.
DHT LONG
Schlumberger benefits from conflict-driven repairs.
Bought more Schlumberger (referred to as SL Slumber) yesterday because its business of fixing things will be good with everything blown up in conflicts, leading to increased demand.
SLB LONG
Gold miners are cheap with huge margins.
Gold miners are cheap compared to cash flow, have huge margins due to high gold prices, and are not heavily owned, making them attractive long-term investments.
GDX LONG
Avoid long-duration US Treasuries.
Wouldn't buy 30-year bonds at 4.75% because the government is debasing the currency through excessive debt and printing, and short-term yields are more attractive; long bonds are not suitable for long-term holding.
TLT AVOID
Buy short-term Treasuries if yields rise further.
If the 2-year Treasury yield reaches 4% or the 3-year reaches 4.25-4.5%, buy some because it might indicate a weaker economy and rates could come down, offering capital appreciation.
SHY WATCH
Avoid expensive tech stocks with poor balance sheets.
Tech stocks like Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvidia are expensive, have worsened balance sheets due to high capital expenditures on AI and data centers, and resemble the 2000 bubble, so avoid unless they come down significantly.
XLK AVOID
Gold is good buy on dips to $4,000.
Gold is a good investment, and if it dips back to $4,000, it would be a good buy, as he sold some at highs but remains bullish due to currency debasement and inflation.
GOLD LONG
Avoid silver miners as overdone.
Sold all silver miners because silver was up 200% last year and looked overdone, making it unattractive currently compared to gold.
SIL AVOID
17:57
Apr 14
Apr 14
WTI
GOLD
SILVER
URANIUM
CCJ
▾
Oil prices could rise on supply disruptions.
If the Straits of Hormuz blockade continues, oil prices will rise significantly due to shortages after floating inventory and strategic reserves are depleted; long-term, oil prices are supported by sustaining capital deficits.
WTI WATCH
Gold is a savings asset and liquidity.
Gold functions as a savings asset and liquidity; he increased his gold holdings as a hedge against uncertainty and as a store of value.
GOLD LONG
Silver overvalued after rapid rise.
Sold physical silver because it was no longer hated and had a hyperbolic up move; the reason for ownership disappeared, making it overvalued and speculative.
SILVER AVOID
Uranium benefits from energy security concerns.
Uranium is the greatest beneficiary of the Gulf conflict due to energy security needs; Japanese reactor restarts will drive near-term demand, and it offers non-carbon base load power.
URANIUM LONG
Cameco is a leading uranium producer.
Cameco is a competitive uranium producer, well-managed, transformed into a seller of watts with high-grade deposits, and is positioned to benefit from uranium demand growth.
CCJ LONG
Mid-tier gold producers are undervalued.
Mid-tier gold producers are underpriced relative to senior producers; gold price will do well, and they may be taken over, offering valuation upside.
GDXJ LONG
Copper demand growth driven by electrification.
Copper demand is expected to grow compounded due to electrification and AI data centers, with potential to consume more copper in the coming decades.
COPPER LONG
High-yield ETFs have liquidity risks.
High-yield ETFs are risky due to liquidity mismatches between liquid ETFs and illiquid underlying bonds, posing a risk similar to 2008 CDOs, and should be avoided.
HYG AVOID
03:13
Apr 14
Apr 14
QQQ
XLE
SPY
TLT
GOLD
▾
Magnificent 7 attractive at 25 forward P/E.
After being underweight the Magnificent 7, they moved back to market weight when the forward P/E fell to 25, considering them cheap and great companies at that valuation.
QQQ LONG
Bullish American oil industry from blockade.
The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz is leading to tankers being redirected to the U.S. Gulf and Venezuela, which could result in a significant increase in business for the American oil industry.
XLE LONG
S&P 500 to 7700 on strong earnings.
He maintains his S&P 500 target of 7700 by year-end, based on earnings estimates of $310 for this year and $350 for next year, and notes that industry analysts are even more optimistic, indicating strong underlying earnings resilience.
SPY LONG
Buy bonds if 10-year yield hits 4.75%.
He is surprised that bond yields haven't risen more given inflation concerns, but believes they still could; a 10-year yield of 4.75% would represent a tremendous buying opportunity for bonds.
TLT WATCH
Gold trend higher, target $10,000.
The trend for gold is still higher; it is a good diversifier with an inverse correlation to stocks but the same long-term trend, and he believes gold could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade as investors rebalance portfolios.
GOLD LONG
Bullish on global equities, especially Korea and Taiwan.
He is staying with the 'go global' trade, noting that markets like South Korea and Taiwan have had V-shaped recoveries and that global equities are back in fashion, expecting continued outperformance.
EWY LONG
EWT LONG
17:08
Apr 13
Apr 13
22:16
Apr 12
Apr 12
TLT
VLO
DE
GDX
GLD
▾
David Cervantes
HIGH
Bonds to suffer due to hawkish Fed.
The labor market is holding up and the Fed may turn hawkish later in the year, while inflation outside the energy complex could keep the Fed from cutting rates, making bonds the most vulnerable asset class.
TLT SHORT
David Cervantes
MED
Refiners with pricing power benefit from disruptions.
In the oil supply chain disruption, refiners like Valero Energy that have pricing power can maintain margins and benefit from choke points because they can pass increased costs to consumers.
VLO LONG
David Cervantes
MED
Deere hurt by rising input costs.
Companies like Deere & Company face margin pressure as they must absorb higher input costs without the ability to pass them on to consumers during supply chain disruptions.
DE SHORT
David Cervantes
MED
Gold miners leveraged to gold price upside.
Gold miners are heavily leveraged to the spot price of gold and are well positioned to profit as gold regains demand after the geopolitical deleveraging cycle paused.
GDX LONG
David Cervantes
HIGH
Long gold futures as hedge and upside.
He is currently long gold futures, viewing gold as an insurance policy that was cashed in during the crisis but is now getting bid again as geopolitical tensions may abate.
GLD LONG
David Cervantes
MED
S&P 500 to rise on earnings increases.
The S&P 500 is likely to move up by year-end because earnings estimates are being marked up and the market is aligned with these increases, suggesting a breakout to the upside once geopolitical issues resolve.
SPY LONG
David Cervantes
MED
Transportation and logistics sector benefits from industrial renaissance.
The transportation and logistics sector is favored due to an industrial renaissance, with some stocks already back at all-time highs, indicating strength and recovery from March sell-off.
XTN LONG
David Cervantes
MED
Oil up due to persistent physical shortages.
WTI crude oil prices are likely to rise by year-end due to persistent physical shortages, as resolving the political settlement and restarting refineries will take time.
CL1! LONG
David Cervantes
HIGH
Long XLK ETF for AI exposure.
He invests in the AI theme by buying the XLK ETF, preferring a broad sectoral approach rather than stock-picking to gain exposure to technology stocks involved in AI.
XLK LONG
01:02
Apr 12
Apr 12
IFLY
▾
Tom Rein
MED
Drones will dominate skies across sectors.
Drones are cost-effective and will dominate the skies in the coming years due to widespread adoption in police, military, consumer, and commercial sectors, lowering costs, improving safety, and transforming various industries.
IFLY LONG
22:21
Apr 10
Apr 10
SHY
GLTR
CVX
XLV
▾
Favor short-term bonds for Fed rate cuts.
The yield curve should be steeper, and the short end is the place to be because the Federal Reserve will be forced to play catchup and cut rates aggressively due to a policy error, making short-term bonds attractive.
SHY LONG
Precious metals are a safe haven now.
Precious metals have found their floor and are a good hiding place for hedging against inflation, credit events, financial crises, or Federal Reserve policy errors.
GLTR LONG
Chevron's dividend is safe and attractive.
Energy dividend stocks like Chevron have safe dividends and can serve as an equity refuge, with the dividend being secure despite market conditions.
CVX LONG
Healthcare benefits from demographic trends.
Demographics are on the side of the healthcare industry, making it a favorable sector for investment due to aging population trends.
XLV LONG
18:10
Apr 10
Apr 10
COPPER
SILVER
SPY
NFLX
UTILITIES
▾
Bullish on copper for AI and infrastructure.
Prefer copper over silver and gold because of AI play and infrastructure side, while cautious on precious metals.
COPPER LONG
Avoid silver and gold, prefer copper.
Cautious on silver and gold because they were extended, neutral now, and gold underperformed during conflict.
SILVER AVOID
GOLD AVOID
Bullish on S&P 500 for 2026.
The US market will continue in a bull market with S&P 500 target 7,300-7,500 for 2026, due to good fundamental conditions, attractive valuations, strong earnings growth, and as part of a 25-year secular bull market.
SPY LONG
Bullish on Netflix for streaming growth.
Netflix is part of communication services secular bull and expected to be a winner in future sports streaming.
NFLX LONG
Overweight utilities sector.
Overweight utilities sector for defense and yield, though not detailed.
UTILITIES LONG
Bullish on Microsoft for AI monetization.
Microsoft is okay because it has been able to monetize assets over the years with a proven track record.
MSFT LONG
Overweight financials sector.
Overweight financials due to thematic view on big financials and small banks winning, consolidation in super regionals, deregulation, and strong earnings growth.
KBE LONG
Bullish on small midcap stocks long-term.
Private equity and credit unwinding could create demand for small midcap public companies due to liquidity, reporting advantages, and as an alternative to private investments.
MDY LONG
IWM LONG
Watch 10-year Treasury yield range.
Watch the 10-year Treasury, expecting it to settle in 350 to 450 range for the next 2-3 years.
TLT WATCH
Overweight communication services sector.
Overweight communication services sector because it is a secular bull sector, with specific likes for growth and yield, and sees future streaming of sports benefiting key players.
XLC LONG
Bullish on Google as AI leader.
Google (Alphabet) is a leader in communication services and AI, with smart AI spend, monetization ability, YouTube's size, and as a future sports streaming winner; contrarian buy signal last year.
GOOG LONG
Bullish on Verizon and AT&T for yield.
Verizon and AT&T are liked for yield and defense, as they have returned to their core broadband belief system.
VZ LONG
T LONG
Bullish on Oracle for financial strength.
Oracle is okay due to strong balance sheet, cash rich, and not needing to raise money.
ORCL LONG
Bullish on Palantir for product quality.
Palantir has one of the best products, and despite being expensive, it is worth buying due to product quality and management team.
PLTR LONG
Bullish on Palo Alto for cybersecurity.
Palo Alto is part of the cybersecurity theme, which is a major investing theme for the next 10 years due to ongoing conflicts.
PANW LONG
Bullish on Nvidia as AI chip leader.
Nvidia is the best AI company for semiconductors/chips, and should be owned over other chip makers.
NVDA LONG
Avoid broad chip sector, prefer Nvidia.
Semiconductors and chips are volatile earners, and investors should avoid the broad sector, preferring Nvidia specifically.
SMH AVOID
21:40
Apr 09
Apr 09
XLE
▾
Speaker cites a potential $2-3 trillion shift from low-yielding money market accounts into the economy if the Fed cuts rates, and states this means "the consumer is going to feel good" and will spend, mentioning restaurant stocks explicitly. A Fed rate cut in June would reduce the appeal of cash holdings, releasing pent-up consumer liquidity. Combined with potential fiscal stimulus (e.g., tariff dividend), this would boost discretionary spending in areas like dining out, retail, and leisure. Consumer discretionary sectors are poised to benefit from a liquidity-driven spending surge in the latter half of 2026. The Fed does not cut rates as expected, or consumer confidence fails to improve despite policy efforts.
XLE LONG
21:09
Apr 08
Apr 08
SPY
WTI
CORN
WEAT
SOYB
▾
Speaker is "short the equity markets right now," sold into the rally, and is "looking longer term for that 40 to 60% haircut." Markets exhibit warning signs identical to the 2001 and 2008 bubbles (overvaluation, stressed private credit, bank overleverage, rising consumer defaults). The current rally is a "rip your face off" squeeze, not a change in weak fundamentals. SHORT because the market is overbought, economic problems are unresolved, and a bear market is expected. Timing error; markets could rally further before the anticipated sell-off begins.
SPY SHORT
Speaker is "obviously still short crude oil" and expects it to be "back in the 60s before the third quarter." The recent price spike was a "fear premium" from Iran tensions, now exiting. The forward curve (Dec futures under $70) shows the true, lower expected value. Underlying demand is weak in a poor economy. SHORT as the commodity is overpriced with the fear premium removed. The Iran ceasefire deal breaks down within days, reinstating geopolitical fear.
WTI SHORT
Speaker is "long grains" (corn, wheat, soybeans) and expects "a 25 to 30% rally across the board." High input costs (fuel, fertilizer) have farmers planting at a loss, threatening supply. Inflation and money rotating out of equities could flow into grain markets. LONG due to favorable risk/reward with significant upside potential from inflation and supply concerns. Absence of adverse weather or supply shock leads to continued oversupply.
CORN LONG
WEAT LONG
SOYB LONG
Speaker "always love[s] gold, silver and platinum," owns them, and believes "there's an outstanding chance we could see [$6,000] gold before years out." Precious metals are the primary hedge against fiat currency devaluation, massive government debt, and persistent inflation. The long-term fundamental drivers remain intact. LONG as a core, long-term holding and inflation/debt hedge. A sharp equity market sell-off forces leveraged players to liquidate gold positions to meet margin calls.
GOLD SHORT
SILVER LONG
PPLT LONG
17:46
Apr 08
Apr 08
GOLD
BTC
▾
Tucker stated gold ran to ~$5,600 and is now at ~$4,600, which he considers a "really high" and "much more reasonable" price. He declared the major price move is "done." Gold typically rallies in anticipation of crises. After such a rally, the price often enters a prolonged period of consolidation (e.g., 9 years after the 2011 peak). The current high valuation and reduced likelihood of an imminent new crisis suggest limited near-term upside. Avoid over-allocating to gold or expecting another major imminent rally. A small (3-5%) allocation is prudent for portfolio stability, but a large allocation (e.g., 20%) is unattractive at this price level. A new, severe global crisis or liquidity event could trigger another sharp rally in gold despite its high starting valuation.
GOLD AVOID
Tucker explicitly stated he believes Bitcoin will go to $250,000 and that he is currently "most excited about Bitcoin." He views Bitcoin as a viable inflation hedge and suggests a small allocation (e.g., 2%) can have a transformative impact on a portfolio if his price target is reached. He also frames current negative sentiment (vs. the prior euphoria) as a potential setup for opportunity. Long Bitcoin for significant asymmetric upside potential from current levels. Price volatility and further negative sentiment could lead to large drawdowns. The thesis depends on continued adoption and the asset's evolving role.
BTC LONG
22:04
Apr 07
Apr 07
GOLD
SILVER
▾
Speaker stated that geopolitical tensions (e.g., Iran deadline) and de-dollarization are "very fundamentally bullish for gold" in the long term. Central banks (e.g., China, Turkey) are diversifying away from USD by buying gold, and countries with weak currencies use gold as a hedge, increasing structural demand. LONG because gold is seen as the "ultimate currency" amid policy uncertainty, with sustained demand from institutional and official sectors. Short-term headline-driven volatility or a resolution of geopolitical conflicts that reduces safe-haven appeal.
GOLD LONG
Speaker highlighted silver's 5-year demand-supply deficit (e.g., 100-150 tons historically, ~70 tons forecasted for 2026) and its status as a critical industrial metal and safe-haven asset. Industrial demand from solar PVs, AI, EVs, and data centers is robust, while physical supply is constrained by generational holdings and free-floating stock tightness. LONG due to unique dual demand drivers and persistent deficits, supporting higher prices over time. Excessive leverage leading to violent corrections (as seen in January 2026) or a slowdown in industrial demand.
SILVER LONG
20:50
Apr 06
Apr 06
GOLD
COPPER
MTA
TLT
▾
Speaker states the world is moving capital into gold as US treasuries are no longer seen as a tier-one reserve asset due to debt sustainability issues. Central banks and entities like Tether are major, non-price-sensitive buyers. As the US faces a $40T debt refinancing wall at higher rates, leading toward a potential "soft default," global capital seeks a neutral, liquid reserve asset without counterparty risk. Gold is viewed as the primary beneficiary of this structural capital shift, with significant remaining buying from institutions needed to diversify away from US debt. A rapid, credible resolution to US fiscal deficits and a restoration of global confidence in US debt management.
GOLD LONG
Speaker predicts 2026 will be the year copper makes a material move higher, citing a structural supply deficit that will worsen annually for the next decade against exponential demand growth. Demand is accelerating from AI, data centers, robotics, and future grid upgrades, while new mine supply is constrained by 20-30 year lead times, preventing a rapid supply response. The fundamental supply/demand imbalance is so acute that prices could rise "significantly higher than even the most bullish forecasts." Widespread substitution with other metals like aluminum or a sharp, prolonged global economic downturn crushing demand.
COPPER LONG
Speaker describes Metalla's portfolio of ~100 royalties on high-quality, long-life assets as the best way to get leveraged, free-carried exposure to rising gold and copper prices, with investments made at lower prices now generating significant cash flow. The royalty model provides non-dilutive, perpetual mineral rights with no further capital outlay, capturing the upside from operator-funded exploration and mine expansion, particularly in a rising metal price environment. The company is "very well positioned" to benefit from the multi-decade thesis for gold (as a reserve asset) and copper (for the new economy), with a portfolio built in the down cycle now entering its cash-generating phase. Operational failures at the underlying mining properties or adverse changes in jurisdiction-specific mining laws and taxes.
MTA LONG
Speaker states the world is looking at US treasuries and saying "this is no longer a tier one reserve asset. It's on its way out," due to a $40T debt stock and an imminent refinancing wall at higher interest rates. As the average cost of debt rises from ~3.8%, interest expenses could reach ~$2T annually, forcing a potential "soft default" (restructuring) or currency devaluation within 2-3 years. The asset class carries extreme refinancing and sovereign credit risk, making it unattractive as global capital seeks alternatives. A dramatic, politically feasible fiscal consolidation in the US that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP trajectory.
TLT AVOID
16:17
Apr 06
Apr 06
SPY
GOLD
DXY
XLF
CL1!
▾
Stated the S&P is in a downtrend (lower highs, lower lows) and expects "one more shoe to drop" from Middle East escalation, leading to a selloff that could take the index down closer to 6,000-6,200. The anticipated geopolitical escalation will create a final wave of selling pressure before the market is positioned for a more sustainable rally. Advises a defensive posture and raising cash, implying a short or avoid stance until this lower target is reached. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East could trigger the anticipated rally prematurely.
SPY SHORT
Believes gold is in a multi-month correction and will see more price erosion, with a chance to dip below $4,100. Notes gold has not performed well as a safe haven recently. A completed corrective wave pattern (A-B-C) from the 2025 high is underway. A stronger US dollar and potential peace in the Middle East would be near-term negatives for gold. Expects a downward move to complete the correction, presenting a better buying opportunity at lower levels. A severe, unexpected escalation in the Middle East that directly threatens oil infrastructure could trigger a flight to safety, boosting gold.
GOLD SHORT
Has been constructive on the dollar since its January low. Technical analysis shows a completed 5-wave advance, implying another push higher to above 100.50, with potential to reach ~107.60. The pattern suggests the prior downtrend has reversed. Contrarian sentiment (widespread stories about the dollar's demise) provides fuel for a rally. The dollar is likely to break out to the upside, which would pressure dollar-sensitive assets like gold and emerging markets. A swift resolution to the Middle East conflict and a coordinated shift away from dollar-denominated oil trades could undermine the thesis.
DXY LONG
Explicitly stated he would "avoid financials" because private credit is going to become a problem, and banks have some exposure to it. While private credit issues are not expected to be systemic like 2008 (due to lower bank leverage), they could still create problems for more exposed banks. The sector carries unattractive risk due to its link to potential stress in private credit markets. If private credit markets stabilize without significant losses, the avoidance call may be too cautious.
XLF AVOID
Identified WTI above $80 as a problem for markets. Highlights a major skewed risk: if Houthis damage Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline (capacity 7M bbl/day), oil prices will spike. The ongoing conflict creates direct, tangible supply risks. Higher oil acts as a tax on consumers and a key variable for Fed policy and market direction. Oil is a critical pressure point and potential source of major volatility, requiring close monitoring for both market and economic implications. The pipeline is not attacked, and the Strait of Hormuz reopens smoothly, leading to a rapid price decline.
CL1! WATCH
19:19
Apr 05
Apr 05
CTGO
XLB
▾
The merged company has over $100 million in cash and generates over $100 million in annual operating cash flow. Management outlines a clear, self-funded path to grow gold production from ~60,000 to 200,000 ounces annually and add ~5 million ounces of silver production. The strong treasury and cash flow are being aggressively reinvested into exploration (60,000m drill program in 2026) and development of high-grade assets to systematically increase production and resource inventory. The company is positioned for organic, low-dilution growth by leveraging its financial strength to advance a multi-asset pipeline, transitioning from explorer/developer to a cash-flowing mid-tier producer. Exploration results fail to expand resources or convert to reserves; execution delays in project development; sustained downturn in gold/silver prices.
CTGO LONG
Current M&A activity in the mining sector is notably low compared to the peak levels seen at the 2011 cycle top. The core investment thesis for gold and silver (sovereign debt concerns, systemic risk, inflation hedge) is argued to be more compelling today than in previous cycles. Historically, frenzied M&A has marked cycle peaks. The absence of such activity, coupled with strong underlying fundamentals, suggests the sector is in a early-to-mid cycle phase with significant room for expansion. The precious metals mining sector is not near a peak and is positioned for a prolonged upcycle, making it an attractive area for investment. A sharp, sustained reversal in macro trends (e.g., dramatic fiscal improvement, disinflation) could undermine the safe-haven and inflationary hedge demand for metals.
XLB LONG
21:39
Apr 03
Apr 03
GOLD
XLE
COPPER
▾
Speaker stated they are "certainly increasing the gold exposure" and highlights specific companies like Agnico Eagle for hedging costs and strong management. He notes gold miners' all-in costs are far below current gold prices (~$1350 vs. ~$4500), making them resilient. Gold miners have unprecedented profit margins. Input cost inflation (e.g., from oil) has a muted impact on margins at current gold prices. Geopolitical and financial system stress underpins long-term demand, while disciplined companies offer leveraged exposure. The fundamental setup for gold producers remains highly attractive, with strong leverage to the metal price and manageable cost structures. A severe, sustained liquidity crisis forces broad asset sales, including gold, overwhelming fundamental demand.
GOLD LONG
Speaker stated they are "actually reducing our exposure to oil" and have "been selling after this big spike" because there was a "disconnect between the undervaluation... of oil and the prices of the oil and gas stocks." While fundamentally bullish on oil long-term, current stock valuations have run up sharply and do not reflect the asymmetric risk that the conflict ends, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and oil prices retreat. The risk/reward at current levels is unfavorable, prompting profit-taking and a reduction in sector exposure. The conflict escalates further, causing oil to spike sharply higher, driving energy stocks up despite valuations.
XLE AVOID
Speaker stated "Copper has come off a lot. The copper stocks have fallen quite a bit. So, there's some good... exposure there primarily." The recent price decline in copper and related equities presents a more attractive entry point for a commodity with strong long-term fundamental demand drivers. The pullback is viewed as a buying opportunity to gain exposure to the copper theme. A sharp global economic slowdown, exacerbated by higher oil prices, significantly reduces near-term industrial demand for copper.
COPPER LONG
16:44
Apr 03
Apr 03
XLE
XLI
XHB
▾
Ron Butler
Principal Mortgage Broker at Butler Mortgage, Host of The Angry Mortgage podcast
long-term
Speaker stated that "energy still runs this world" and Canada has the world's third or fourth largest reserves of petroleum and natural gas. Exploiting these energy resources is necessary for Canada's economic growth, revenue generation, and deficit reduction, as global energy demand remains critical post-war realization. LONG on energy minerals due to their fundamental role in the global economy and Canada's strategic advantage and need to develop reserves. Policy barriers, environmental regulations, or a rapid shift towards alternative energy could hinder extraction and adoption.
XLE LONG
Ron Butler
Principal Mortgage Broker at Butler Mortgage, Host of The Angry Mortgage podcast
medium-term
Speaker explicitly said that "manufacturing continues on a steady inexorable decline and manufacturing is Ontario." This decline is driven by trade issues, tariffs, and economic stagnation, particularly in Ontario and Quebec, with manufacturing being a key component of Ontario's economy. AVOID the producer manufacturing sector as it faces structural headwinds, negative outlook, and recessionary pressures in key regions. Improvement in trade relations, especially with the US, or policy changes could revive manufacturing activity.
XLI AVOID
Ron Butler
Principal Mortgage Broker at Butler Mortgage, Host of The Angry Mortgage podcast
short to medium-term
In response to a question about shorting homebuilder stocks, speaker indicated that higher mortgage rates are temporary and if the Iran war ends, rates could drop, improving sentiment. Homebuilder stocks are sensitive to mortgage rates; a ceasefire could lead to lower energy prices, lower bond yields, and reduced mortgage rates, unlocking pent-up demand and boosting builder sentiment. WATCH homebuilder stocks for a potential turnaround based on geopolitical developments affecting mortgage rates and housing market dynamics. The war prolongs, keeping energy prices and mortgage rates high, continuing to pressure homebuilders and delay recovery.
XHB WATCH
21:20
Apr 02
Apr 02
USD
GOLD
JPY
XLF
▾
Kenneth Rogoff
Professor of Economics at Harvard University, former IMF Chief Economist, author
medium-term
Rogoff states the US dollar is very high and likely to depreciate, especially against Asian currencies, with a guess of 5% down in 2026. The dollar is out of line with purchasing power parity, and historical patterns show reversion to mean tends to occur slowly. Expect dollar depreciation, making SHORT positions on the dollar potentially profitable. Rapid resolution of the Iran war or strengthening US policies could sustain dollar strength.
USD SHORT
Kenneth Rogoff
Professor of Economics at Harvard University, former IMF Chief Economist, author
long-term
Rogoff says gold has become an important element of reserves for central banks and is "the new gold," with sustained demand. In a volatile world with declining dollar dominance, gold serves as a traditional store of value and hedge. Gold's growing role in reserves warrants close monitoring for investment opportunities. If central banks shift away from gold or technological alternatives emerge, demand could fade.
GOLD WATCH
Kenneth Rogoff
Professor of Economics at Harvard University, former IMF Chief Economist, author
medium-term
Rogoff explicitly mentions the Japanese yen and Korean won are at "ridiculously low" values relative to the dollar and likely to revert to mean. Currencies significantly undervalued based on purchasing power parity tend to appreciate over time through reversion. Expect appreciation of these currencies against the dollar, making LONG positions favorable. Continued dollar strength or regional economic issues could delay reversion.
JPY LONG
Kenneth Rogoff
Professor of Economics at Harvard University, former IMF Chief Economist, author
medium-term
Rogoff warns that deregulation in the financial sector has gone too far and risks causing another financial crisis in 3-4 years. Excessive deregulation can lead to increased risk-taking and instability in financial markets. The financial sector is vulnerable to a crisis, suggesting investors should AVOID or be cautious. If regulation is tightened or risks are mitigated, a crisis might be averted.
XLF AVOID
16:57
Apr 02
Apr 02
CASH
XLK
GOLD
USD
WTI
▾
Peter Berezin
Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, BCA Research
Short-term to medium-term.
Speaker explicitly states "I like cash right now" due to high market risks. Stocks are cheaper than earlier but still trade at ~20x forward earnings on peak margins. High valuations combined with risks to tech sector profit margins and a potential economic slowdown create asymmetric downside risk. Preferring cash (AVOID equities) is a defensive posture to preserve capital for better entry points during a potential sell-off. A swift resolution to the oil shock and sustained AI capex boom could propel stocks higher, causing an opportunity cost.
CASH AVOID
Speaker highlights that stocks are expensive and specifically notes risk that "huge profit margins, especially in the tech sector, start to decline." AI disruption is cited as a threat not just to software, but potentially to social media business models and hardware (chip/data center) demand, posing a broad risk to tech sector earnings and valuations. The combination of high valuations and sector-specific disruptive pressures warrants an AVOID stance on the broad tech sector. AI capex spending continues to surge unabated, supporting tech earnings and justifying current multiples.
XLK AVOID
Speaker states central banks are looking to diversify dollar holdings "towards other currencies... I would include gold in that list and that's fundamentally supportive for gold prices." Also notes gold "probably will start to do well over the coming months and probably years." Long-term structural headwinds for the USD and diversification demand are fundamental supports. The recent correction is attributed to transient factors (retail froth, higher rates). The long-term fundamental picture for gold is positive, suggesting a LONG bias. A rapid resolution to geopolitical tensions and a significant, sustained drop in oil prices could reduce diversification urgency and strengthen the dollar, pressuring gold.
GOLD LONG
Speaker states "I think the dollar is okay right now" because higher oil prices benefit US terms of trade relative to Europe/Japan. However, he outlines three major long-term headwinds: overvaluation, massive external liabilities, and political unpopularity driving diversification. Short-term cyclical factors (oil shock) provide support, but long-term structural trends are negative. The outlook could worsen if the oil shock ends and tech capital flows reverse. Mixed short-term support and long-term drags result in a NEUTRAL stance with a cautious bias. An escalation of the conflict triggering a global flight to safety could cause a sharp, sustained USD rally.
USD NEUTRAL
Speaker analyzes that a 10% sustained supply disruption could send oil to $200/bbl, inducing a recession. He notes a geopolitical risk premium will persist even if the war ends, preventing a return to pre-conflict prices. The price trajectory is entirely contingent on geopolitical developments in Iran. The market is currently pricing significant risk (high prices), but the outcome is highly uncertain and binary. The asset is at a critical juncture with massive upside and downside volatility potential based on unpredictable events, making it a high-priority WATCH. The thesis is dominated by geopolitical event risk, which is inherently unpredictable.
WTI WATCH
19:57
Apr 01
Apr 01
04:01
Apr 01
Apr 01
FIGURE
▾
Speaker is an investor in Figure, a humanoid robotics company. He states the manufacturing use cases are "very easily" seen, but he is uncertain about consumer adoption of humanoid forms in homes at scale. Robotics and AI represent transformative technology with clear industrial applications. However, consumer markets are unpredictable, and a subset of the population may be fearful, limiting home uptake. WATCH because the underlying technology is promising and has demonstrable commercial pathways (manufacturing), but the broader consumer market application and its timing remain highly uncertain and dependent on social acceptance. Public fear or rejection of humanoid robots in personal spaces, technical limitations in unstructured home environments, and the possibility that non-humanoid forms are sufficient for manufacturing tasks.
FIGURE WATCH
21:32
Mar 31
Mar 31
GLTR
CVX
XLK
▾
Speaker observed that precious metals found a floor and began to get bid up last Friday, a move that has continued, potentially linked to fewer margin calls and a drop in short-term yields. After a sustained decline, the emergence of price support and renewed buying interest, coinciding with shifts in short-term yields, suggests a potential inflection point or stabilization. WATCH because the asset class is showing early technical and flow-based signs of a possible reversal after a significant downtrend, warranting close monitoring. A renewed surge in the dollar or real yields could resume the selling pressure.
GLTR WATCH
Speaker stated energy stocks have been a safer place, they pay dividends, and highlighted Chevron as a company that has never cut its dividend. During times of market distress and uncertainty, investors seek safety and reliable income. Energy stocks, particularly those with unwavering dividend histories, are perceived as safe havens. LONG because the company is explicitly cited as a paragon of safety (reliable dividend) within a sector (energy) that is benefiting from the current crisis and investor flight to quality. Oil prices could become "prohibitively high" to the point of slowing growth even for energy companies.
CVX LONG
Speaker stated there is "a lot more skepticism" attached to big AI companies, with rising costs to insure against their default via credit default swaps, crashing cash flows, and a correction in the NASDAQ. Higher funding costs and investor skepticism reduce access to capital for tech/AI companies, pressuring their valuations and growth prospects, especially in a "higher for longer" rate regime. AVOID because the sector faces increasing headwinds from tighter financial conditions, rising risk perception, and a shift in investor preference away from non-dividend growth stocks. A sudden, decisive shift to Fed easing could reopen liquidity taps for the sector.
XLK AVOID
21:57
Mar 30
Mar 30
WTI
GOLD
SILVER
SPY
XLE
▾
Chris says "I definitely wouldn't be shorting oil," "the trend is up," and oil could reach $140 based on Fibonacci extensions. High oil prices pressure consumers, drive inflation, and lead to lower stock and bond prices, similar to past cycles. WATCH because the bullish trend is intact, but he's not currently long, advising to monitor for long opportunities amid volatility. Geopolitical news could cause sudden reversals, making oil prices unpredictable and risky.
WTI WATCH
Chris expects a "big 20 plus% pullback in gold," has exited positions, and identifies a bearish topping pattern with rejection at highs. Gold is moving in lockstep with stocks, not acting as a safe haven, and chart signals indicate weakness and potential decline. AVOID because holding gold now could lead to significant losses and wasted time during a likely correction. Gold could form a bull flag and rally later, but current technicals are negative.
GOLD AVOID
Chris says "I think we're going to see at least a 30 to 40% pullback in silver," and notes volume has dried up, indicating lack of interest. Silver has topped alongside gold, is in a bearish phase, and could decline sharply in a broad market sell-off. AVOID due to expected sharp pullback, high volatility, and poor sentiment. Silver could rebound if market conditions improve, but currently shows signs of weakness.
SILVER AVOID
Chris states they "moved out of the equities market" and advises sidestepping due to trendless, volatile conditions reminiscent of 2022. Market is breaking down with critical support at 6,200, and high oil prices or AI disruption could trigger further sell-offs. AVOID because the risk of a bear market is high, and protecting capital is priority over trading in this uncertain environment. The market could bounce and resume an uptrend, but currently, the trend is down or sideways.
SPY AVOID
Chris discusses XLE, saying energy stocks have had a "huge run," feels "overdone," and would wait for a pullback before getting long. Energy sector is bucking the broader market trend but is crowded and could fall sharply if news changes, aligning with general market decline. AVOID because current levels are risky with potential for sudden drops, despite the bullish oil trend. Oil prices could continue to rise, boosting energy stocks, but the sector is vulnerable to a mass exodus on negative headlines.
XLE AVOID
19:46
Mar 29
Mar 29
COPPER
▾
The speaker explicitly states the supercycle is not over, recent price drops are due to short-term speculative factors and recession fears, and the long-term structural supply-demand deficit for copper is intact and worsening. New supply cannot be ramped quickly (takes ~17 years), while demand is being layered from AI/data centers and the energy transition on top of base electrification growth. Current inventories are high but only cover weeks of global demand. LONG due to the unavoidable long-term physical deficit, which will necessitate significantly higher prices to incentivize new mine development that is currently not happening. A prolonged global recession could suppress demand in the medium term, delaying the price inflection point.
COPPER LONG
01:09
Mar 29
Mar 29
JETS
DBA
XLI
▾
Colin Grabow
Associate Director, Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies
long-term
The speaker explicitly criticizes the Jones Act, stating it makes domestic water transportation "incredibly more expensive" than international shipping, acts as a "hidden tax on domestic commerce," and has rendered the U.S. shipbuilding industry "woefully uncompetitive" (0.04% of global output). The law mandates the use of expensive, U.S.-built, owned, and crewed ships, creating an artificial scarcity of vessels and high costs. This inefficient transportation raises prices for goods and energy, particularly in non-contiguous and pipeline-constrained regions. The sector is distorted by a policy that introduces significant costs and inefficiencies into the economy. Avoiding exposure to sectors reliant on or governed by these rules is prudent due to the embedded regulatory risk and economic drag. Political momentum for repealing or reforming the Jones Act, which would disrupt the protected market.
JETS AVOID
Colin Grabow
Associate Director, Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies
long-term
The speaker explicitly identifies the U.S. sugar program as a policy designed to keep domestic sugar prices "two to three times higher" than world prices, acting as a "candy coated cartel" that enriches a subset of farmers at the expense of consumers and downstream manufacturers. The program restricts supply via domestic production limits and import quotas. High input costs have driven candy manufacturers to relocate to countries with cheaper sugar, like Canada, harming U.S. manufacturing. The government policy directly inflates costs for a fundamental input, making the sector and related consumer goods industries structurally uncompetitive and unattractive due to artificial price supports. Legislative repeal of the sugar program.
DBA AVOID
Colin Grabow
Associate Director, Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies
medium-term
The speaker criticizes 50% tariffs on steel imports, stating they are "transparently to curry favor with the steel industry" in swing states and are "not about protecting American consumers," but about enriching "well-connected special interests." Tariffs raise the cost of a key industrial input. This harms the many downstream industries (e.g., autos, construction, machinery) that use steel, putting them at a competitive disadvantage versus foreign rivals with access to cheaper inputs. Policies designed to protect a specific manufacturing sub-sector (steel) impose a net cost on the broader producer manufacturing ecosystem by raising input costs, reducing overall competitiveness. Removal of steel tariffs, which would benefit downstream manufacturers but hurt domestic steel producers.
XLI AVOID
23:03
Mar 27
Mar 27
WTI
GOLD
▾
Hanke states the physical market price for oil is "way above" the futures/paper market price, creating a large gap. With Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, physical shortages (especially in Asia) will persist. The futures market will eventually be "mugged by reality," causing prices to rise to meet the elevated physical market price. Functionally closing the strait ensures continued supply constraints. The price of oil "is going up" and will remain elevated and volatile. This is a setup for a significant price move, warranting close monitoring. A successful US/Israel military operation that crushes Iran and fully re-opens the Strait of Hormuz, which Hanke views as a very low-probability scenario.
WTI WATCH
Hanke maintains his gold price target, revised from a point estimate of $6,000/oz to a range of $6,000-$7,000/oz for the cycle top. While acknowledging recent headwinds from rising bond yields (increasing opportunity cost) and a stronger dollar, the long-term bullish thesis remains intact. He is still bullish on gold, expecting it to reach the $6,000-$7,000 range, though the path may be slower than the rapid surge seen a few months prior. A sustained, aggressive rise in real interest rates and continued US dollar strength could further delay or dampen the ascent.
GOLD LONG
20:36
Mar 26
Mar 26
GOLD
UNG
SILVER
▾
The speaker states long-term investment demand for gold is at record levels and is expected to stay high due to political instabilities globally and in the U.S., and that from a long-term basis, it "still makes sense." Despite a sharp ~20% correction driven by Fed policy and market disruptions, the core drivers (record deficits, political risk, secular investment demand) are intact or worsening. The price is still vastly above the ~$1,700/oz production cost. LONG because the fundamental long-term bull case is considered unchanged, with prices expected to consolidate and then move higher later in 2026 into 2027/2028. A sustained reopening of the Dubai physical market could alleviate a major source of recent selling pressure, but the broader political/economic thesis remains.
GOLD LONG
The speaker states he is "more concerned about natural gas prices staying higher" than oil prices due to the Middle East conflict, because a "greater portion of global LNG comes from Qatar and the Gulf region" through the disrupted Strait of Hormuz. The war has damaged energy infrastructure and closed key shipping routes. While oil has more diversified global production, LNG supply is more concentrated in the affected region, implying a longer and more severe disruption. WATCH because the supply disruption risk is structurally higher for natural gas/LNG than for oil, making its price trajectory a greater concern. A swift end to the hot war and rapid repair of LNG infrastructure could normalize supply faster than expected.
UNG WATCH
The speaker explicitly says "I like silver," noting the market is "relatively tight." A key change is that long-term investor selling, which was persistent from 2022-2025, has stopped as holders wait for potentially higher prices. The cessation of sales from a large cohort of holders (some dating back to the 2011 and 2021 peaks) reduces available supply. Combined with ongoing investment demand, this creates a tighter fundamental balance. LONG due to improved supply-side dynamics (reduced investor selling) within an already positive long-term precious metals environment, though it is acknowledged as more volatile than gold. A rapid shift in sentiment could cause these long-term holders to return as sellers to realize profits, increasing supply.
SILVER LONG
01:38
Mar 26
Mar 26
BTC
▾
Speaker explicitly stated that Bitcoin is not at the bottom, will likely go lower as the year goes on, and expects around a 70% drop from the peak. Historical midterm year patterns show Bitcoin underperforms, on-chain indicators (e.g., realized price, balance price) haven't signaled a bottom, and the late business cycle environment creates macro headwinds. Bitcoin is unattractive in the medium-term with significant downside risk, warranting avoidance. An earlier reset of the business cycle or unexpected monetary easing (e.g., Fed printing) could catalyze a sooner bottom.
BTC AVOID
21:04
Mar 25
Mar 25
DBC
GOLD
WTI
BTC
▾
Speaker states the Iran war is the trigger to "kick" the long-term ratio of commodities (S&P GSCI) vs. stocks (S&P 500) into the other direction, following a cycle that last changed in 2008. Historically, such multi-year cycles see commodities and stocks alternating leadership. The war's impact on physical commodity supply and logistics, combined with pre-existing macro conditions, initiates this shift. Commodities are expected to "outperform stocks over the next probably 5 years at least," warranting a long position on the asset class. A rapid, peaceful resolution to the Iran conflict and a swift recovery of damaged Middle Eastern energy infrastructure could delay or negate the cycle shift.
DBC LONG
Speaker states "your job in a bull market is to buy the dip," explicitly mentioning he bought physical metals on Monday and will buy more if gold continues down. Gold is in a clear long-term uptrend but underwent a sharp correction from overbought conditions exacerbated by war-induced liquidity shocks. Future money printing to pay for wars and persistent central bank buying are fundamental drivers. The current pullback is a "healthy correction" in a strong bull market, creating a buying opportunity. The speaker is actively accumulating. Escalation to a broader "World War" scenario that cripples all markets and trade, breaking the bull market thesis.
GOLD LONG
Speaker states, "oil market is extremely well supported here and we will probably see new highs in the oil market down the road at some point." Significant physical damage has been done to oil and gas facilities across the Middle East (Iran, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE), with rebuilding timelines measured in years (e.g., 3-5 years for Qatar's LNG facilities). This constrains future supply. Despite short-term relief on geopolitical headlines, the fundamental damage to supply infrastructure supports higher prices over time. A sustained global recession/depression destroys demand enough to offset the supply constraints.
WTI LONG
Speaker states Bitcoin is in a "crypto winter," his fourth, and advises "you want to be at the sidelines. You don't want to second guess." He sees no indication the winter is over. Crypto winters typically last longer than expected and end with a "total panic selloff," which hasn't occurred yet. Bitcoin remains in a downtrend (trading below the 200-day MA) and could be dragged down further if U.S. stock market stress emerges from private debt issues. The prevailing trend is negative and the cycle low is not confirmed, making it an unattractive area for investment. Capital should be preserved for clearer opportunities elsewhere (e.g., gold). A sudden, sharp resolution to geopolitical tensions and a surge in global liquidity that flows preferentially into crypto, ending the winter prematurely.
BTC AVOID
00:27
Mar 25
Mar 25
19:30
Mar 24
Mar 24
GOLD
▾
Speaker explicitly stated that during a significant dip in gold prices (e.g., touching below $4,300/oz), "It's a buying opportunity, you know, into moving into an asset that really counters everything else that's happening." Gold serves as a preservation strategy amid rising US debt (nearly $40 trillion), dollar devaluation, hyperinflation risks, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply constraints, while institutional targets like JP Morgan’s $6,300 outlook support long-term upside. LONG because gold is viewed as a defensive asset with long-term value storage, increased physical demand, and potential price appreciation during market chaos. Continued mechanical selling from funds, a sustained stronger US dollar, or a resolution of geopolitical tensions could reduce gold’s appeal and price support.
GOLD LONG
04:08
Mar 24
Mar 24
LNG
USO
▾
The speaker highlights that the Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar (20% of global supply) was damaged, with 17% of its trains significantly damaged, taking 20% of capacity offline. He agrees with the IEA that the crisis is "profoundly consequential" and notes Europe exits winter with empty stores and doubled prices. Physical supply of LNG is materially constrained by wartime damage. Repair will take "many months" even if the war stopped immediately. This creates a tight physical market, particularly for European and Asian buyers, disconnected from near-term political headlines. WATCH due to sustained fundamental tightness. The supply damage is real and long-lasting, providing a price floor and volatility catalyst separate from the daily war headlines that move oil. A faster-than-expected repair timeline or a collapse in global demand due to economic recession would alleviate the supply pressure. An attack on even more critical gas infrastructure would exacerbate it.
LNG WATCH
The speaker states the market is "shocked at the complacency" given the scale of the supply shock (Strait closed, infrastructure damaged), and is surprised Brent is only at ~$100. He also states his long-term bearish view that "the top is in." The current price does not reflect the extreme physical supply risk, yet the political will to tolerate the economic pain of much higher prices is limited (e.g., Trump's market-sensitive posts). This creates a sharp tension between fundamental risk and political/price cap risk. WATCH due to extreme, binary asymmetry. Prices could spike violently on further escalation or infrastructure damage, but are capped by political action and could fall rapidly on any de-escalation or if the long-term bearish thesis prevails. A decisive military action that permanently opens the Strait or a major diplomatic breakthrough would break the bullish risk case. A major new infrastructure attack or regional escalation (e.g., Red Sea closure) would break the bearish/capped price case.
USO WATCH
18:30
Mar 23
Mar 23
USO
JETS
▾
Diesel prices have surged sharply (up $1.34/gal in a month to just under $5/gal) due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Diesel is the bedrock of the trucking industry and is used in farming. Higher diesel costs directly increase the cost of shipping goods (like food) and operating agricultural machinery. These costs are passed through to consumer prices, but with a lag compared to immediate gasoline price spikes. A sustained diesel price shock will create a second wave of inflation in essential goods like food, making it a critical macro indicator to monitor beyond headline gasoline prices. A swift resolution to the Hormuz blockade could alleviate supply constraints and cause prices to fall.
USO WATCH
The speaker notes that while car efficiency has improved, the efficiency of trucks shipping food "hasn't changed a whole lot at all." He explicitly links diesel costs to trucking and food prices. The transportation sector, particularly long-haul trucking, is highly exposed to the current diesel price shock. Unlike consumers who may cut discretionary driving, trucking demand is inelastic in the short term, forcing cost pass-through. Companies and sectors reliant on diesel-powered freight face rising input costs and margin pressure, making the broader transportation sector an area of vulnerability worth watching. A rapid normalization of diesel supply or effective government intervention could mitigate cost pressures.
JETS WATCH
17:28
Mar 22
Mar 22
23:47
Mar 20
Mar 20
CL1!
GOLD
SILVER
BTC
SPY
▾
Speaker explicitly states he expects WTI crude oil to drop towards $40-$50 per barrel by the end of the year, calling for the December 2026 contract (trading ~$77) to move toward $50. The Strait of Hormuz closure is an inflationary oil shock that will trigger a global recession, which is historically deflationary for commodities. High prices will destroy demand, spur a flood of supply from the Western Hemisphere, and accelerate the shift to alternatives (e.g., EVs). The asset is its own worst enemy; the current "pump" will inevitably lead to a "dump" as it did in 2008 ($147 to $32) and 2022 ($130 to $55). The Strait remains closed indefinitely, or the U.S./Israeli military fails to re-open it and neutralize Iran's offensive capabilities, prolonging the supply crisis.
CL1! SHORT
Speaker states, "I'm not a fan of gold. I think initially goes to 4,000." He asserts the bull market is over and it is no longer a store-of-value asset. Gold's 2025 parabolic rally transformed it into a high-volatility speculative asset (180-day vol at 2.4x S&P 500). It went "up too much" and now exhibits classic commodity behavior where extreme price spikes are followed by mean reversion. A falling stock market will drag down all high-volatility assets. The fundamental characteristic of the asset has changed from defensive to speculative, making it vulnerable in a broad market downturn. The geopolitical crisis escalates far beyond expectations, reigniting a flight to traditional havens and overriding the volatility/momentum dynamics.
GOLD SHORT
Speaker explicitly says, "I fully expect silver to go back to near 50," referencing its drop from a year-to-date high above $100. As an industrial metal, silver is even more exposed to the coming recession than gold. Its dramatic 63% YTD pump has already reversed into a dump, showing the pattern. High prices will lead to "thrifting" (demand destruction) and bring on new supply. The "devil's metal" has lived up to its reputation for sharp reversals. Its extreme price action signals a major top. A rapid, V-shaped global economic recovery that sparks immediate industrial demand before supply can respond.
SILVER SHORT
Speaker states, "I still think Bitcoin is going to head towards 10,000," with initial key support at $50,000. Bitcoin led the risk asset rally and is now leading the decline. Its peak coincided with the "biggest ETF launch in history," a classic contrary sell signal. It is now part of a crowded, financialized market with an "unlimited supply" of competing cryptocurrencies that need a purge (e.g., Dogecoin at $15B). As a leading indicator for risk appetite, its breakdown presages a broader stock market correction which will feed back into further crypto declines. A sudden, massive wave of institutional adoption unrelated to macro conditions provides a new, independent source of buy-side pressure.
BTC SHORT
Speaker calls this "the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since 2000," stating the market is overdue for a 20%+ correction. The market is at its most expensive level versus GDP (~2.3x) in nearly 100 years, while 180-day volatility is near 10-year lows, indicating extreme complacency. The oil shock and potential Fed policy error are the catalysts for a violent mean reversion. The economy is now the stock market, so a downturn directly causes recession. A normal reversion is "way overdue," and the current crisis provides the trigger. High valuation is the number one reason for a recession. The Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly without sustained economic damage, and the Fed successfully navigates with patience, allowing the AI-driven valuation narrative to reassert itself.
SPY SHORT
17:29
Mar 20
Mar 20
GOLD
WTI
SILVER
▾
The speaker stated he is "neutral right now" on gold, awaiting technical alignment with fundamentals. He is uncertain whether the price action is a deep correction or a bearish pivot. Gold has broken below the key 50-day moving average (bearish) but remains above the critical 78% Fibonacci retracement support at ~$4568 (bullish correction signal). This creates a mixed technical message against a fundamentally bullish backdrop of geopolitical strife. NEUTRAL because the evidence is conflicting. A break below $4568 would confirm a bearish pivot, while holding above it keeps the bullish correction thesis alive. He is waiting for this signal. A sustained break below the $4568 support level would invalidate the correction thesis and confirm a bearish trend reversal.
GOLD NEUTRAL
The speaker stated that crude oil is "in lead" and "outperforming both" gold and the dollar in terms of sustained percentage gains. He attributes this to a strategic shift of large money from gold/dollar into oil. Geopolitical conflict in a key oil-producing region (Straight of Hormuz) creates direct supply risks, driving volatility and price spikes. Professional traders are allocating capital to crude for a better perceived risk/return. WATCH because crude oil has clear near-term momentum and fundamental catalysts linked to the conflict. It is the asset currently demonstrating the strongest bullish price action. A de-escalation of Middle East tensions could rapidly remove the geopolitical risk premium from the oil price.
WTI WATCH
The speaker described silver as "twice as bright" but lasting "half of the time" compared to gold, highlighting its extreme volatility. He noted it is a "much more concentrated trading vehicle" with less liquidity and plays a "far back second" role as a safe haven. Lower liquidity and its status as a secondary safe haven make silver prone to exaggerated, violent price swings both up and down, especially after its recent parabolic move to all-time highs. AVOID due to its high-risk, unstable profile in the current volatile market. It lacks the liquidity and primary safe-haven status of gold, making it a less reliable asset during this period of uncertainty. A sharp, sustained rally in gold could pull silver higher with significant leverage, but the path would likely be chaotic.
SILVER AVOID
02:44
Mar 20
Mar 20
CAD
XLE
▾
Josef Schachter
President of Schachter Energy Research Services, author of the Schachter Report
Medium to long-term (through 2026 and beyond).
The speaker forecasts the Canadian dollar (CAD) could strengthen to 75-78 cents USD by year-end if oil is $80, and to 80-90 cents if oil reaches $90 in the next few years. Canada is a resource-driven economy with large energy and mineral export surpluses. Higher commodity prices, particularly oil and LNG, increase export revenues and capital inflows, strengthening the currency. LONG the CAD as a direct beneficiary of the anticipated higher energy prices and Canada's trade surplus, with the relationship historically robust. A global recession that collapses commodity demand and prices, negating the trade surplus effect.
CAD LONG
Josef Schachter
President of Schachter Energy Research Services, author of the Schachter Report
Long-term (multi-year cycle), but with a caution for near-term profit-taking.
The speaker states Canadian energy stocks are much cheaper than US peers on metrics like price to NAV and cash flow, have had a massive run-up (some doubling/tripling), and are attractive due to Canada's position as the 4th largest global producer and a favorable policy shift. A multi-year "energy supercycle" is anticipated due to global energy demand and infrastructure needs. Higher oil/gas prices directly benefit producer cash flows and valuations. WATCH because while the long-term thesis is bullish, the speaker explicitly advises taking profits on positions that have become too large after the recent surge, due to the risk of a sharp correction if the Middle East conflict ends and oil prices fall. A swift end to the Middle East conflict leading to a rapid normalization of oil prices and a reversal in energy equity momentum.
XLE WATCH
03:16
Mar 19
Mar 19
SILVER
XLF
XLK
▾
The speaker states, "I'm still mostly focused on... precious metals for my own portfolio" and "mostly I'm adding to my positions in gold and silver because I think they're going to do very well over the medium term." He views precious metals as a primary allocation, expecting them to outperform as the private credit crisis unfolds and the Fed is eventually forced to monetize debt, leading to inflation. This is a direct, explicit long view on gold and silver as core holdings for the medium term, based on macroeconomic and monetary policy outlook. A deflationary crash that crushes all commodities, or a sustained period of Fed hawkishness that strengthens the dollar.
SILVER LONG
The speaker states he has been "mostly out of US financials," suspects they will trade off, and explicitly says "the banks aren't cheap yet," using JPMorgan trading at 2x book as an example. He identifies banks as the "next shoe to drop" in the credit cycle, with "dumber banks" holding bad paper. His view is that as credit deteriorates, banks will trade off further, creating a better entry point in the future. The clear inference is that the broad finance sector should be avoided currently due to looming credit losses and unattractive valuations, with a preference to wait for a cheaper entry point. Banks prove more resilient than expected, or credit stress remains contained to non-bank lenders.
XLF AVOID
The speaker links software sector vulnerability to AI, stating "there's a pervasive belief that the advent of AI is going to make a lot of software... completely irrelevant," leading to investment dumping and layoffs. He later references an Apollo executive's comment that a generic software company loan might recover only 20-40 cents on the dollar. The core thesis is that the software sector (a primary component of Technology Services) is facing an existential threat from AI, which is causing a reassessment of its value and investment appeal, coinciding with a tightening credit environment that funds these companies. The combination of a technological disruption narrative and severe private credit markdowns in the sector suggests an AVOID stance due to fundamental and financing risks. AI integration proves to be a revenue and productivity boon for existing software companies rather than a replacement threat.
XLK AVOID
19:39
Mar 18
Mar 18
WTI
GOLD
SILVER
BTC
SPY
▾
Stated "the highs are in on oil at $120" and expects "a draw down in the next 3 to six months back to $70 a barrel." Believes geopolitical pressure (Iran conflict) will abate as the U.S. has a political incentive to lower oil-induced inflation ahead of midterm elections. Also anticipates U.S. economic weakness. SHORT because the spike to $120 is seen as a panic-driven peak, and a combination of political resolution and economic slowing should catalyze a significant mean reversion. The Iran conflict escalates or spreads, keeping supply fears elevated and preventing the predicted drawdown.
WTI SHORT
Explicitly said, "I think gold by the end of this year is back to $3,500 per ounce." Identifies a bearish chart pattern (inside bar bearish flag) and argues gold has lost its "safe haven" status in the near term, becoming an emotional "get rich quick" asset filled with "weak hands" who will sell on fear. SHORT because the chart signals breakdown and the shift in market psychology (from safe-haven to speculative asset) necessitates a flush-out of weak holders to much lower prices. A severe, sustained financial crisis triggers a sudden rush back to traditional safe havens, overriding the current technical and behavioral setup.
GOLD SHORT
Stated "I think silver is going to be back to about $50 to $54 per ounce by year end." Points to a clear bear flag pattern on the chart and groups it with gold as having become an emotionally-driven speculative asset rather than a stable store of value. SHORT for the same core reasons as gold: technical breakdown and the need to wash out speculative, weak-handed buyers. A sustained industrial demand surge coupled with supply constraints reverses the technical breakdown.
SILVER SHORT
Said, "I still think it's going to go higher... towards that 80 to 84,000 level" and that he is "still long Bitcoin looking for 80-85K." Expects a near-term "risk-on" bounce in markets, propelled by a pullback in oil prices, which will benefit Bitcoin as a risk asset. It has also been the best-performing major asset over the past month, showing relative strength. LONG as a tactical trade to capitalize on a short-term relief rally in risk assets. The expected oil pullback does not materialize or is delayed, stifling the "risk-on" bounce. A breakdown below $60,000 would invalidate the near-term bullish case.
BTC LONG
States he is "net bearish on the S&P" and targets "the low on this market will be somewhere in this 5500 to 5600 level." Points to a concerning rounded top distribution pattern (similar to 2008), underlying economic weakness (labor, consumer), stagflationary pressures, and stress in private credit markets. SHORT because the confluence of technical deterioration, macroeconomic slowdown (stagflation), and credit market stress suggests a significant correction is likely. The Federal Reserve intervenes more aggressively than expected with stimulus, or the economic data meaningfully improves, preventing the downturn.
SPY SHORT
Said, "I have a small short position up here on Micron" and can "see something very similar to what happened on Oracle occurring on Micron." Views Micron's rally as a parabolic, FOMO-driven move identical to prior bubbles. Fundamental view is that memory storage is not proprietary and the current shortage will abate, causing prices and stock prices to "collapse." SHORT to capitalize on the expected bursting of a speculative bubble in memory stocks, anticipating a 50%+ downside. The memory shortage is more structural and prolonged than anticipated, leading to sustained higher earnings and justifying the current price.
MU SHORT
00:08
Mar 18
Mar 18
XOM
XLE
WTI
TLT
▾
Speaker cites Exxon Mobil's 2030 business plan based on $65 oil and states "if $65 oil happens, this is the cheapest stock in the S&P 500." The stock was undervalued even before the crisis based on conservative oil price assumptions. The geopolitical event adds a further catalyst but doesn't change the fundamental valuation math. At current or even moderately lower oil prices, XOM's valuation is compelling, offering a margin of safety with optionality on higher energy prices. A sustained, deep collapse in oil prices well below the company's planning assumptions ($65).
XOM LONG
Speaker states "the energy sector... was undervalued" and it is "another reason to kind of overweight energy stocks." The sector was the most undervalued and underowned in the S&P before the crisis. Geopolitical risk is generally underpriced in commodities, and this event highlights the sector's strategic importance. The sector offers attractive valuation and represents a prudent overweight, especially given heightened global supply risks. A rapid and lasting resolution to the crisis that removes the geopolitical risk premium and refocuses the market on long-term demand concerns (e.g., energy transition).
XLE LONG
Speaker states if the Strait of Hormuz closure does not resolve soon, "we should see all-time high oil prices" on an inflation-adjusted basis, referencing 2008's $147 level adjusted to "$200 plus." The Strait carries 1/5 of global crude; Iran's blockade is effective with no quick diplomatic/military solution, causing the physical market price to ratchet up 5-8% per day. The physical supply shock is severe and enduring, with price momentum signaling a continued grind higher toward historical cyclical extremes. A swift political resolution reopening the Strait, or a successful military operation to secure the passage.
WTI LONG
Speaker argues oil-importing nations that hold US Treasuries "will have to sell those financial assets to secure physical energy," turning a "huge natural buyer of treasuries turn seller." The world needs physical oil and food more than financial assets during a supply disruption; countries will prioritize securing commodities over holding bonds. The energy crisis creates a fundamental, price-insensitive seller of US government debt, pressuring prices lower (yields higher). The Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly, negating the sustained pressure on importers' balance of payments.
TLT SHORT
16:16
Mar 17
Mar 17
XLK
XLY
USD
TLT
NIO
▾
Explicitly stated "we're very bullish on the Chinese semiconductor companies." Said China doesn't need Nvidia's H200 chips because they have great chips from Huawei and other Chinese companies. Later emphasized booming optimism in the sector and that Chinese tech is being adopted globally to avoid U.S. sanctions. China's drive for technological independence, coupled with state bank lending and demand from the "global majority" for non-U.S. tech, creates a powerful tailwind for domestic semiconductor and AI companies. Bullish on the Chinese semiconductor/AI sector due to policy support, successful indigenous innovation, and a structural shift in global demand. Severe escalation of U.S. tech sanctions that China cannot circumvent; failure to maintain technological parity.
XLK LONG
Stated over 50% of new auto sales in China are NEVs and that Middle East tensions will push adoption "even more." Said this will be "even worse for the Toyotas, the Nissan, the General Motors of the world who've been really slow at adopting NEV technology." The rapid shift to NEVs in the world's largest auto market structurally disadvantages legacy, foreign automakers who are behind in the transition. Implied bearish view on legacy automakers' prospects in China, which translates to a relative LONG view on the Chinese NEV sector (consumer durables) capturing that market share. Legacy automakers rapidly catching up in NEV technology and production within China.
XLY LONG
Expresses deep worry about a U.S. financial crisis "worse than 2008" due to $39-40 trillion debt, alienated allies, and perceived unstable leadership. Believes this could cause China to become the largest economy due to U.S. "implosion." A deep financial crisis would involve a drop in equity markets, stress in private credit and labor markets, and likely a loss of confidence in U.S. fiscal management and the dollar. The speaker's primary concern is a U.S. macroeconomic collapse, implying a high-risk view on U.S. financial assets, including the dollar and sovereign debt. U.S. political and economic stability is maintained, and the debt burden is managed without crisis.
USD AVOID
TLT AVOID
Stated "that's why investors should be looking at NIO" after noting over 50% of new auto sales were NEVs. Said BYD sales are expected to go up due to new models and a new 10-minute full-charge battery technology. Middle East tensions will push Chinese consumers to adopt NEVs even more, benefiting domestic leaders. BYD's new technology is a competitive advantage. Positive view on specific Chinese NEV leaders due to strong market adoption trends and technological innovation. Failure of new models or battery tech; broader Chinese consumer downturn.
NIO LONG
BYD LONG
21:03
Mar 16
Mar 16
GLD
GDX
FNV
VNOM
TPL
▾
"Central banks around the world that have the most capital are buying tons of gold... I think that the gold price is not reflecting this geopolitical crisis." As the US continues to run massive deficits and off-balance sheet liabilities, fiat currency will inevitably lose purchasing power. Hard money like physical gold will revalue higher to reflect this debasement, while gold miners (GDX) offer leveraged upside to the rising price of the underlying metal. Long physical gold and gold miners as a core savings vehicle and hedge against systemic fiat debasement. Gold can experience sharp, sudden drawdowns (like the recent 20% drop mentioned in the video), and mining equities carry operational and jurisdictional risks.
GLD LONG
GDX LONG
"I'm looking at some of the oil royalties... Franco Nevada... Viper Energy... Texas Pacific Land, as well as Landbridge. They have a lot less risk than some of the other companies." Oil is currently a "hated asset" but remains a global economic cornerstone. Instead of taking on the massive capital expenditure and operational risks of direct oil drillers, investors can buy royalty and land leasing companies. These companies act as landlords, collecting toll-like revenues from the producers drilling on their land, providing high-margin exposure to rising energy prices. Long energy royalty and land-leasing companies for lower-risk, high-margin exposure to geopolitical oil shocks. A severe global recession could crush oil demand and prices, directly reducing the royalty revenues collected by these firms.
FNV LONG
VNOM LONG
TPL LONG
LB LONG
"I've been buying the exchange stocks, you know, such as the exchanges that own the New York Stock Exchange... think about it as owning the roads and the toll booths, rather than owning the cars." Retail investors constantly try to pick winning stocks or cryptocurrencies, which is highly risky. Financial exchanges operate the underlying infrastructure of the market. They generate revenue from trading volume, data services, and transaction fees regardless of whether the broader market is going up or down. Long financial exchange operators to profit from overall market participation and volatility without taking single-asset directional risk. Prolonged bear markets or low-volatility environments can lead to decreased trading volumes, which compresses exchange revenues.
ICE LONG
CME LONG
NDAQ LONG
"There is a lot of uncertainty right now and you got to be nimble. So I'm holding more cash nowadays in T-bills, short duration treasuries, so I can earn a yield and just see what the market does." In a macro environment characterized by geopolitical conflict and a K-shaped economy, asset prices can swing violently. Holding cash equivalents in short-duration Treasuries provides a risk-free yield while preserving the liquidity necessary to aggressively buy risk assets when they sell off. Long short-term Treasury ETFs to generate yield while maintaining maximum optionality during market volatility. Reinvestment risk if the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates, which would lower the yield generated by cash equivalents.
SGOV LONG
"We are relying on China who refines about 90% of the world's rare earths, and these are critical minerals to the livelihoods and global militaries. We need to be investing in that." The US military and tech sectors cannot remain dependent on a geopolitical rival for critical minerals. This vulnerability will force the US government to direct massive capital (subsidies and contracts) toward domestic mining and refining infrastructure, directly benefiting onshore rare earth producers like MP Materials. Long domestic rare earth miners as a geopolitical hedge and direct beneficiary of US supply chain onshoring. Mining and refining rare earths is highly capital intensive; additionally, China could temporarily flood the market with cheap supply to crush the margins of Western competitors.
MP LONG
16:46
Mar 16
Mar 16
GDXJ
CORN
TLT
QQQ
XLK
▾
I speculate in small gold mining stocks... these mining stocks are, believe it or not, still undervalued. Gold slightly overvalued. Mining stocks still very cheap. While physical gold has run up significantly, retail and institutional capital has largely ignored the junior miners due to ESG mandates and long production lead times. As gold sustains higher prices due to fiat debasement, the massive margin expansion for these smaller producers will eventually trigger a re-rating and significant capital inflows. LONG junior gold miners as a high-leverage, deep-value catch-up play to physical gold. Mining is highly capital intensive; jurisdictional risks, operational failures, or a sudden drop in physical gold prices could severely impact junior miners.
GDXJ LONG
Commodities are grossly underpriced relative to financial assets... the grains are very cheap at this point. In fact, they're the cheapest area of the commodities market... I bought the corn ETF. In a highly inflationary environment driven by fiat debasement and geopolitical conflict, hard assets and essential commodities reprice higher. Grains have lagged other commodities, offering a deep-value entry point with asymmetric upside as global supply chains remain under pressure. LONG agricultural commodities (Corn) as a cheap inflation and geopolitical hedge. Agricultural yields are highly dependent on weather patterns; oversupply or unexpectedly strong global crop yields could suppress prices despite broader macro inflation.
CORN LONG
We're entering a major bear market for bonds. Interest rates are going higher. Doesn't matter what the government does. Printing up money is going to increase inflation and inevitably lead to higher interest rates. The US is running multi-trillion dollar deficits while engaging in expensive foreign conflicts. Since foreign buyers are no longer funding this debt, the Federal Reserve must monetize it. This guarantees higher structural inflation, forcing long-term yields up to 1980s levels and crushing long-duration bond prices. SHORT long-term US Treasuries as inflation and massive debt issuance overwhelm the bond market. A severe deflationary recession or a sudden global flight to safety could temporarily drive capital back into US Treasuries, lowering yields and spiking bond prices.
TLT SHORT
The general stock market is basically a high-tech market... I wonder whether all this money going into AI isn't a misallocation and it's turned into a bubble... much of the hundreds of billions being invested is going to be outmoded before it gets to be used. The current market concentration in mega-cap tech is driven by massive AI capital expenditures. If the underlying technology evolves too rapidly, current hardware and infrastructure investments will become obsolete before they generate a return on investment, popping the valuation bubble in broad tech indices. AVOID broad tech indices heavily weighted in AI infrastructure and mega-cap technology. AI could deliver unprecedented productivity gains faster than expected, justifying the massive capex and driving tech valuations even higher.
QQQ AVOID
XLK AVOID
The straits of Hormuz... is basically cut off at least to the degree that the Iranians want to cut it off... As most of the production in the Gulf stays offline and tankers are afraid to go through... Oil prices could go a lot higher. The Middle East conflict is expanding asymmetrically, directly threatening the world's most critical oil chokepoint. Any sustained disruption to the 20% of global oil that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will cause a severe supply shock, driving up crude prices and boosting the revenues of Western energy producers outside the conflict zone. LONG crude oil and Western energy equities as a direct geopolitical hedge. A sudden diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict or a severe global economic contraction could destroy oil demand, crashing prices.
USO LONG
XLE LONG
18:12
Mar 14
Mar 14
F
GM
TM
ITB
DHI
▾
Autos have the lowest profit margin of all the sectors that we can look at. You're seeing job losses in auto manufacturing. The auto sector is highly cyclical and sensitive to interest rates on both the producer and consumer sides. Because their profit margins are already near zero, they cannot absorb the cost of supply chain shocks or pass higher prices onto a squeezed consumer. This forces them to cut jobs and lower forward guidance. SHORT. Automakers lack the profit margin buffer that the rest of the broader economy enjoys, making them highly vulnerable to the current "higher for longer" rate environment. A sudden drop in interest rates or the removal of tariffs could alleviate margin pressure and stimulate consumer demand for vehicles.
F SHORT
GM SHORT
TM SHORT
We still have a little bit of a negative pipeline going forward, meaning that housing construction activity is still going to come down over the next several months. Housing starts are currently trailing housing completions. This means the backlog of construction work is actively shrinking. As this pipeline dries up, residential homebuilders will experience reduced revenues, margin compression, and a decreased need for construction labor. AVOID. The sector is still facing a structural contraction in pipeline activity and will likely need more aggressive monetary policy support (rate cuts) before a true fundamental bottom is formed. The Federal Reserve cuts rates faster than anticipated, which would quickly lower mortgage rates, stimulate new housing starts, and reverse the negative pipeline trend.
ITB AVOID
DHI AVOID
LEN AVOID
Corporate profit margins are at the highest level basically in history. We're not super pessimistic on large cap equity indexes unless a recession develops. High corporate profit margins act as a massive macroeconomic shock absorber. When business slows down, companies can simply pause hiring rather than firing workers to protect their bottom line. This prevents the negative feedback loop of a mass layoff cycle, which is the primary catalyst for a deep recession. LONG. Blue-chip, large-cap indexes have the fundamental margin buffer required to remain resilient through current geopolitical volatility and supply-side shocks. An exogenous shock, such as a massive and sustained spike in global oil prices, compresses corporate margins faster than expected, forcing companies to abandon the "no fire" policy and triggering a mass layoff cycle.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, and JP Morgan are restricting redemptions at private credit funds and marking down the value of certain loans. The $2 trillion private credit market is experiencing severe liquidity and valuation stress due to a prolonged high interest rate environment. Publicly traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) that operate in this exact lending space will likely face similar portfolio markdowns, rising defaults, and investor flight. AVOID. The flurry of bad news, redemption gates, and forced markdowns by tier-one banks signals underlying rot and illiquidity in private credit portfolios. The Fed cuts rates sooner than expected, which would bail out over-leveraged corporate borrowers, reduce default risks, and restore liquidity to the private credit market.
ARCC AVOID
OBDC AVOID
BIZD AVOID
19:46
Mar 13
Mar 13
BAL
USO
SPY
QQQ
TLT
▾
I'm certainly bullish the grain market. I thought the grains are bottomed... I'm certainly bullish cotton. Agricultural and soft commodities have been beaten down and have formed a technical bottom. When the overvalued equity market eventually sells off, institutional funds will rotate their capital into these undervalued, hard assets. Going long grains and cotton positions a portfolio ahead of the institutional capital rotation out of tech and equities and into cheap commodities. A severe global recession could destroy demand across all asset classes, dragging down even undervalued agricultural commodities.
BAL LONG
WEAT LONG
CORN LONG
I am short oil... this is purely a fear trade right now... oil is in backwardation. The recent price spike is driven by geopolitical fear regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but actual supply is ample and futures markets are pricing in lower costs months out. Once the fear dissipates, the premium will collapse. Shorting oil capitalizes on the inevitable deflation of the geopolitical fear premium and the reality of weak global economic demand. An unexpected escalation in the Middle East that actually disrupts physical supply could cause another parabolic short-squeeze.
USO SHORT
The stock market has been extremely overvalued... I'm still looking for that pretty dramatic sell-off... we are in a K-shaped economy. High equity valuations are disconnected from the underlying economy, where consumers are maxed out on credit cards and facing delinquencies. As consumer spending breaks and banks mark down bad loans, broad market indices will suffer an 8-15% correction. Shorting major indices takes advantage of the massive divergence between stock prices and deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals. Rip your face off short-covering rallies can occur, temporarily squeezing short sellers before the broader downtrend resumes.
SPY SHORT
QQQ SHORT
I'm also short the bond market because I think interest rates are going higher. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates, long-end yields have actually risen. Persistent inflation and massive government debt issuance will continue to pressure bond prices downward. Shorting long-duration bonds aligns with the reality that structural debt and inflation will force the long end of the yield curve higher, regardless of Fed policy. A sudden, severe deflationary crash could trigger a flight to safety, causing bond prices to spike and yields to plummet.
TLT SHORT
I am long natural gas. While crude oil is artificially inflated by a geopolitical fear premium, natural gas presents a more favorable technical and fundamental setup, making it an attractive long position in the energy sector. Going long natural gas provides targeted energy exposure without the geopolitical overvaluation currently seen in crude oil. Natural gas is highly sensitive to weather patterns and domestic production levels, which can cause severe price volatility.
UNG LONG
I'm getting ready to look to short the dollar up if it gets back to par... I expect that to go down. The US Dollar has been trading in a defined range between 98 and 100 (par). Hitting the top of this range presents a technical resistance level, making it a high-probability mean-reversion short trade back toward the bottom of the range. Shorting the dollar at resistance captures the predictable range-bound behavior of the currency in the current macro environment. A global liquidity crisis could trigger a massive flight into US Dollars, breaking it out of its range to the upside.
UUP SHORT
The only commodity that I would stay away from in here right now would be the cattle markets because I think they're extremely overvalued here. Unlike grains and cotton which have bottomed, cattle prices have run up significantly and are now overextended. They do not offer the same asymmetric risk/reward for capital rotation. Avoiding cattle protects capital from a potential mean-reversion in an overbought agricultural sub-sector. Supply chain issues or disease outbreaks could cause cattle prices to squeeze even higher, defying overvaluation metrics.
COW AVOID
From a trader standpoint right now, I am short gold... we had gotten to a point where we had the big rally... and started to consolidate. Gold hit a major technical resistance level after a massive run-up and is now overbought. Until this consolidation phase resolves, the highest probability trade is to short the top of the range. Shorting gold in the near term capitalizes on overbought technical conditions and range-bound consolidation, even if the long-term macro thesis remains bullish. A sudden banking failure or geopolitical shock could cause gold to break out of its consolidation to the upside immediately, crushing short positions.
GLD SHORT
17:22
Mar 12
Mar 12
GLD
GDX
NEM
GOLD
COPX
▾
Rob Bruggeman
Co-founder of the Wealthy Miner, Director of Abba Silver Resource Corp
medium-term / long-term
"I would say there's significant more upside... I think it's going to be higher than where we are today especially on gold." Central banks (especially in Asia and emerging markets) are aggressively buying gold to diversify their reserves away from the US Dollar due to weaponized trade policies and sanctions. Combined with massive US deficit spending that erodes fiat purchasing power, capital is structurally forced into hard assets to preserve wealth. LONG. Gold serves as the primary beneficiary of global de-dollarization and inevitable fiat currency debasement. A Republican sweep in the US elections that successfully implements policies to strengthen the dollar, cut spending, and resolve geopolitical trade frictions could stall gold's momentum.
GLD LONG
"You're running at about 20% cost inflation right now... I really like producers or near-term producers in the gold space versus anything that's more than say three years out." Building new mines has become prohibitively expensive due to severe inflation in materials and labor (a $500M project today will cost $1B in five years). Therefore, junior explorers face massive dilution and execution risk, while companies that have already spent their capital and are currently producing gold will capture the full margin expansion of rising spot prices. LONG. Established gold producers are positioned to generate massive free cash flow while avoiding the severe CAPEX inflation plaguing new mine construction. Management teams returning to poor capital discipline (e.g., overpaying for low-grade acquisitions) instead of returning cash to shareholders.
GDX LONG
NEM LONG
GOLD LONG
"The copper story is phenomenal and that's because you just need so much of it for these new hyperscaler data centers... you're going to need the equivalent of a couple of the world's biggest mines to come on stream every year." The physical world is facing a severe structural deficit in copper supply driven by AI infrastructure, EVs, and grid electrification. Because major miners cannot build new capacity fast enough to meet this demand, copper prices must rise, and large-cap miners will be forced to acquire smaller explorers with viable porphyry projects at a premium to replace their depleting reserves. LONG. The intersection of explosive AI infrastructure demand and heavily constrained physical supply creates a highly bullish setup for copper equities. Short-term price pullbacks due to US tariff policies altering trade flows, or a broad macroeconomic recession dampening immediate industrial demand.
COPX LONG
FCX LONG
SCCO LONG
"The easiest way out of this is to print money. Printing money equals inflation... you're paying off legacy debts with dollars that aren't worth as much." US debt-to-GDP is back to post-WWII levels, and interest expenses are projected to double over the next decade. Because politicians will not cut spending (as it costs votes), the Federal Reserve will be forced to tolerate higher baseline inflation (3%+) to devalue the debt. This mathematically destroys the real purchasing power of the US Dollar and the real yield of long-duration government bonds. AVOID. Holding fiat currency or long-term government debt in an era of deliberate fiscal dominance and currency debasement guarantees a loss of real wealth. A severe deflationary shock or global liquidity crisis that forces a massive, temporary flight to safety into US Dollars and Treasuries.
UUP AVOID
TLT AVOID
04:18
Mar 12
Mar 12
EOG
PLTR
LMT
RTX
GD
▾
Hal Kempfer
Retired Marine Lieutenant Colonel, CEO of Global Risk Intelligence and Planning
short-term
"The straight of Hormuz is effectively closed. More than 150 commercial ships are stranded... Roughly 18 million barrels of oil per day normally transit the straight and most of that supply is now gone." The removal of 20% of the global daily oil supply creates an immediate and severe structural deficit. While the 400 million barrel SPR release provides a short-term buffer, the underlying supply shock will keep crude prices elevated. Domestic US producers with no Middle East exposure will capture massive margin expansion without the geopolitical operational risk of operating in the Persian Gulf. LONG. US-based exploration and production companies will benefit from sustained high oil prices driven by the de facto naval blockade. The US Navy clears the sea mines faster than expected, or the SPR release successfully suppresses prices long enough for a diplomatic resolution.
EOG LONG
XLE LONG
COP LONG
Hal Kempfer
Retired Marine Lieutenant Colonel, CEO of Global Risk Intelligence and Planning
long-term
"We're going to have to embrace drones and counter drone capabilities in ways that we knew we had to do... you're going to see drones, not just air, sea, subsurface, ground across the board being incorporated at a much more advanced pace. Same thing with artificial intelligence." The military has realized that using $4 million Patriot missiles to shoot down $35,000 Iranian Shahed drones is economically unsustainable. Future budget allocations will aggressively pivot toward asymmetric warfare tech: low-cost drone swarms, loitering munitions, and AI-driven targeting systems. Pure-play defense tech and drone manufacturers will capture this new budget priority over legacy hardware builders. LONG. Next-generation defense technology companies are perfectly positioned to win contracts as the Pentagon shifts doctrine toward AI and low-cost unmanned systems. Legacy defense primes could acquire these smaller companies or use their lobbying power to monopolize the new drone and AI contracts.
PLTR LONG
KTOS LONG
AVAV LONG
Hal Kempfer
Retired Marine Lieutenant Colonel, CEO of Global Risk Intelligence and Planning
medium-term
"If you're in the armaments business, it's a great time to be in that industry cuz we're going to have to we're already starting to cut contracts as is Europe and rebuilding this capability." The US burned through $5.6 billion in munitions in just two days, heavily utilizing expensive Tomahawk and Patriot missiles. To replenish these depleted stockpiles and prepare for other global contingencies (like a potential conflict over Taiwan), the DoD will issue massive replacement contracts to prime defense contractors manufacturing these specific munitions and interceptors. LONG. Traditional defense primes are guaranteed massive backlog expansions due to the immediate need to restock high-end munitions. Budget gridlock in Congress could delay contract awards, or a rapid de-escalation could reduce the total volume of munitions required.
LMT LONG
RTX LONG
GD LONG
Hal Kempfer
Retired Marine Lieutenant Colonel, CEO of Global Risk Intelligence and Planning
short-term
"Straight of Hormuz total tanker transit calls... has been plummeting in the last couple days down to zero... there's a risk to a number of ships. You know, we got these three ships that were hit." With the primary Middle East export artery closed, global oil must be sourced from further away (e.g., the Americas to Asia), drastically increasing ton-mile demand. Furthermore, any tankers willing to risk the transit will command astronomical war-risk premiums and charter rates. This supply chain friction directly inflates the revenues and day rates of global tanker operators. LONG. Tanker operators will see massive spikes in day rates due to rerouting, increased ton-mile demand, and extreme risk premiums. A rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or a severe global recession triggered by high energy prices that destroys underlying oil demand.
FRO LONG
STNG LONG
18:38
Mar 11
Mar 11
COPX
FCX
KNDYF
▾
"Copper is at all-time highs because there's more demand than there is supply... high-grade copper projects are being depleted. Big mines are starting to get older. We have data centers, artificial intelligence and the electrification at hand that is pushing the demand." The convergence of massive new demand vectors (AI infrastructure and EVs) with structurally constrained supply (aging mines, lower ore grades) creates a long-term bullish environment for copper. Large producers and copper mining ETFs will directly benefit from sustained higher commodity prices as the deficit widens. LONG. Copper miners hold the existing reserves necessary to feed the unavoidable demand from the old economy and new tech infrastructure. A severe global recession could temporarily destroy industrial demand for copper, or new extraction technologies could unexpectedly flood the market with supply.
COPX LONG
FCX LONG
"We have a discovery. It's a high-grade copper, gold, silver scarn system... our market cap is currently between 30 and $35 million Canadian valuation... we're seeing larger mining companies are starting to realize that they have to continue to feed that pipeline and you're starting to see a lot of acquisitions happen." Major mining companies are facing depleted reserves and need to acquire new, high-grade projects to survive. A small-cap explorer with a de-risked, poly-metallic deposit in a tier-1 mining jurisdiction (Sonora, Mexico) is a prime M&A target. Furthermore, their clean share structure (no warrants) and upcoming 5,000-7,000 meter drill program provide near-term catalysts for a re-rating. LONG. KNDYF offers asymmetric upside as a buyout target or through resource expansion as they prove out their 6-kilometer limestone corridor. Exploration is inherently risky; future drill results may miss expectations, or local community/jurisdictional issues in Mexico could halt project development.
KNDYF LONG
00:15
Mar 11
Mar 11
BTC
FXI
TSLA
MCHI
SSRM
▾
Bitcoin has lost its mojo. Volatility has come out of it. The institutionalization of Bitcoin is actually a huge negative... Gold is being bought by the PBOC and foreign central banks. Bitcoin not so much. Bitcoin's appeal was rooted in its high volatility and speculative upside. As ETFs and institutions stabilize the asset, speculative capital will rotate out of Bitcoin and into higher-beta assets, while sovereign wealth continues to prefer physical gold for reserve diversification. AVOID. Bitcoin is caught in a dead zone—too stable for speculators, but lacking the sovereign central bank backing of gold. US regulatory changes or a sovereign nation announcing the inclusion of Bitcoin in their strategic reserve assets.
BTC AVOID
China given how much inflation there's no inflation in China they can put as much money as they want it's not going to matter and also they've got their budgets under control so they have much greater scope for fiscal and monetary largesse. Unlike the US, which is constrained by high inflation and massive deficits, China has the macroeconomic flexibility to aggressively stimulate its economy. This divergence will drive capital flows toward cheaper Chinese equities as stimulus takes effect. LONG. Superior macroeconomic flexibility, low valuations, and the ability to deploy stimulus make Chinese equities highly attractive relative to the US. Escalating geopolitical tensions, tariffs, or a failure of the Chinese government to actually deploy the anticipated stimulus.
FXI LONG
MCHI LONG
I short Tesla. I think Tesla's worth $20. I think all the meme stocks talking about down 90% from here. The end of the zero-interest-rate policy era marks the death of speculation. Companies trading at hyper-inflated multiples based on narrative rather than fundamental cash flows will face a brutal reality check as the cost of capital normalizes. SHORT. The macro environment no longer supports narrative-driven, high-multiple consumer discretionary stocks. Tesla successfully launches a fully autonomous robotaxi network, fundamentally changing its business model from auto manufacturing to high-margin software/services.
TSLA SHORT
The most recent numbers we saw out of the mining companies, they reflected on average like $4,100 gold, $4,200 gold. Gold's 5200 today. They're incredibly cash flow positive... guess what the miners are doing? They're buying back stock. Because miners are modeling their businesses on lower gold prices, current spot prices will result in massive earnings surprises. Furthermore, using this excess cash flow to buy back shares creates a constant bid under the stock, driving EPS growth and multiple expansion. LONG. The combination of extreme earnings leverage to the gold price and aggressive share buybacks provides a strong fundamental tailwind for miners. A sudden collapse in the spot price of gold or operational/geopolitical failures at specific mine sites.
SSRM LONG
EQX LONG
Depletion is such 5% a year where if we don't keep drilling, we're going to start to have a decline. I was more into the services companies than I were the producers because that's really where the operating leverage is. Global oil depletion rates force exploration and production companies to continuously spend capital on drilling just to maintain flat output. This guaranteed capital expenditure flows directly to the top line of oilfield service providers, insulating them somewhat from short-term spot oil volatility. LONG. Oil services offer superior operating leverage and benefit from the structural necessity of continuous global drilling. A severe global recession that temporarily destroys oil demand and forces E&P companies to slash capital expenditure budgets.
SLB LONG
VAL LONG
Is Adobe having its Kodak moment because a lot of people look at Photoshop and say there's no moat. What do I need this for when I can just go and check GPT... the valuations are much higher compared to where software stock sold in say 2011. Generative AI introduces existential product risk to legacy software companies by lowering the barrier to entry for their core services. Combined with valuations that are still historically stretched, this uncertainty will lead to severe multiple compression. AVOID. The sector faces a toxic combination of high historical valuations and unprecedented technological disruption. Legacy software companies successfully integrate AI to increase pricing power and lock in their enterprise customer base.
ADBE AVOID
TEAM AVOID
The problem with Micron is their business is so far above trend and the margins are so far above trend... you already see the capacity announcements for more capacity. That capacity is not going to hit anytime soon. It's going to be like 2028. Semiconductor companies are currently over-earning due to a temporary supply/demand imbalance. The massive profits are incentivizing new fabrication capacity, which will eventually flood the market, crush margins, and collapse the earnings multiples of these stocks. SHORT. Buying highly cyclical semiconductor stocks at peak margins with incoming supply gluts offers terrible forward returns and no margin of safety. AI hardware demand continues to outpace all new capacity additions, keeping margins elevated for longer than anticipated.
MU SHORT
NVDA SHORT
Bonds do not hedge you against the risk that you should be concerned about. The risk is we keep spending money like drunken sailors and we get inflation. The era of using long-duration government bonds as a safe haven is over because the primary threat to portfolios is no longer deflation or recession, but rather currency debasement and inflation driven by unchecked government spending. AVOID. Fixed income will suffer severe real-term losses in a regime characterized by fiscal dominance and structural inflation. A sudden, severe deflationary shock or credit event that forces a massive flight to safety into US Treasuries.
TLT AVOID
20:37
Mar 10
Mar 10
SVM
SLV
CPER
▾
We are a silver company that doesn't trade at a silver company premium. We have lower costs than many of our peers and a fully funded growth pipeline. Because SVM generates strong free cash flow from low-cost operations and does not require external financing to build its next mines, it is insulated from capital market dilution risks. As the company executes on its development projects in Ecuador and Kyrgyzstan and pursues a Hong Kong listing, the market should close the valuation gap between SVM and its higher-priced silver peers. LONG SVM as a value play within the silver mining sector, offering organic growth, low operating costs, and a margin of safety due to its current peer discount. Geopolitical and jurisdictional risks operating in China, Ecuador, and Kyrgyzstan; execution delays in mine construction; a sharp decline in underlying precious metal prices.
SVM LONG
Silver is firing on both cylinders. There is a very strong industrial demand component from solar panels, EVs, and data centers, and then you layer on top of that the same kind of drivers that we've seen in gold as a store of value. Silver uniquely benefits from two massive macro trends: the physical electrification of the global economy and the psychological need for monetary hedging amid global instability. With no imminent new mining supply coming online to flood the market, this dual-demand shock will force prices higher to incentivize any future production. LONG SLV to capture the structural supply-demand deficit in the physical silver market. A severe global economic recession could destroy industrial demand, potentially offsetting the monetary safe-haven flows.
SLV LONG
Society has lost track of understanding that our quality of life comes back to mining. If it's harder to find and bring these metals on and society still needs them, that means they'll trade at a higher price. The transition to green energy and advanced computing requires unprecedented amounts of base metals like copper. Because the mining industry cannot quickly spin up new production due to decades-long permitting cycles and capital starvation, the only mechanism to balance the market is a dramatically higher commodity price to force demand destruction or incentivize extreme exploration. LONG CPER to position for the revenge of the miners supercycle, where highly inelastic supply meets exponential industrial demand. High interest rates slowing down global infrastructure and housing builds; technological substitution if copper becomes too expensive for industrial applications.
CPER LONG
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