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04:56
Jun 03
Jun 03
DEO 1ST
XLP 1ST
HRL 1ST
EL 1ST
INTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Diageo long turnaround premiumization defensive
Diageo generates $3B free cash flow, has new management (Dave from Tesco) cutting costs and selling non-core assets, with double-digit growth in every region except the US (tequila issue being fixed via pre-made drinks). It is a defensive premiumization play where higher-margin, lower-volume drinking is the trend, and the stock will return to glory.
DEO LONG
Record low weight defensive sectors long
Defensive sectors (staples, healthcare, utilities) are at a record low weight in the S&P 500 (16% vs historical 35%), similar to the 2000 tech peak. This extreme underownership sets up for mean reversion as the Iran war resolves and the AI trade cools, driving money into out-of-favor defensives.
XLP LONG
Hormel long dividend growth turnaround
Hormel is a turnaround story with a 65-year dividend growth streak, a 6% yield, and recent earnings showing a return to growth and margin expansion across its protein-centric portfolio. It is out of favor and starting to turn the corner.
HRL LONG
Estee Lauder long online recovery
Estee Lauder has recovered from COVID lows (doubled off the bottom) and pulled back after a bad perfume deal. It is now shifting from mall/travel retail to online (TikTok Shop, Amazon), growing double digits there, and executing well again. The stock is starting to recover and is still early in the turnaround.
EL LONG
Intel short-term downside to $60
Intel, after being sold near $96-97 and rallying to $131, is now back around $100 and likely to fall to $60 in the near term before eventually recovering to $200. Government support is fading and the stock faces headwinds.
INTC AVOID
Advanced Auto Parts long target $150
Advanced Auto Parts sold its Canadian business, closed unprofitable stores, and under new CEO is back to growth and margin expansion. With the average car on the road at 14 years, the company is opening 35 stores this year. Hayes targets $150 per share, a triple from the current ~$50-60, based on prior operating margin levels.
AAP LONG
Alibaba long cheapest AI play
Alibaba is the cheapest way to play AI globally, holding equity stakes in Chinese AI startups (analogous to Amazon/Alphabet's stakes in Anthropic/SpaceX) that are not yet priced in. It benefits from a weak dollar and emerging market exposure, offering significant optionality at a low valuation.
BABA LONG
Long Treasuries on yield decline
The prudent trade is to buy Treasury bonds (long duration) betting that the Iran war will be resolved, which will lower inflation expectations and allow the Fed to cut rates, causing yields to fall. He takes the other side of the bond vigilantes who are selling.
TLT LONG
HIGH
17:11
Jun 02
Jun 02
DBC
Aluminum
IEF 1ST
▾
HIGH
Commodities in super cycle, all up.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Israel war on Iran is supercharging the start of a commodity super cycle, with all commodity prices rising. Fertilizer shortages from the Gulf shutdown will reduce agricultural yields, further boosting food prices.
DBC LONG
Aluminum squeezed by Hormuz crisis.
Aluminum is the next commodity to be squeezed by the Hormuz crisis because a significant amount of aluminum production occurs in Gulf nations, and the Strait closure disrupts supply at the margin.
Aluminum LONG
10-year yield above 4.5% dangerous.
If the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 4.5% on a sustained basis, the bond vigilantes will emerge. Yields are driven by elevated inflation and the negative feedback loop of rolling over short-term debt at higher rates, squeezing the budget.
IEF SHORT
HIGH
22:30
Jun 01
Jun 01
SPY
XLE 1ST
XLI 1ST
DBC 1ST
▾
MED
Bearish setup early 2027 supply
A confluence of factors—massive IPO lockup expirations (trillions in equity supply), stickier inflation removing Fed cuts, and a deeply negative second derivative of AI capex—will create a bearish setup for US equities in early 2027. This is not a near-term call but a 6-12 month horizon risk.
SPY WATCH
Long US energy sector
US energy companies are highly competitive, drill domestically, and have almost no geopolitical risk. In a multipolar world with high nominal GDP growth, energy stands out as a comparative advantage for America and should be added to portfolios.
XLE LONG
Long US industrials sector
A multipolar world with high nominal GDP growth means investors should own industrial sectors that benefit from physical buildout, infrastructure, and capex. Industrials are one of the few sectors that should outperform tech over the next 5 years.
XLI LONG
Long commodities multipolar world
Commodities are a key beneficiary of the multipolar world and high nominal GDP growth environment. Investors should own broad commodities as a way to diversify away from tech and capture real-asset demand.
DBC LONG
MED
17:14
Jun 01
Jun 01
20:38
May 27
May 27
Bitcoin ETFs
▾
MED
Buy Bitcoin ETFs for retirement
Bonds will not provide sufficient retirement returns; investors must take on risk assets. For the average investor, the best way to get crypto exposure is through pooled vehicles like Bitcoin ETFs, which offer diversified, lower-cost access.
Bitcoin ETFs LONG
MED
21:29
May 26
May 26
SPY 1ST
TLT 1ST
Autonomous warfare
ICLN 1ST
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid US equities, premium dissipating
The US is acting like a bad emerging market with high policy volatility and a huge valuation premium. Over the next several years, the US premium will dissipate as the rest of the world reprices upward and the US reprices downward. The US trades at 21-22x forward earnings while EM trades at 12x, yet EM earnings growth is stronger. Underweight US equities in favor of cheaper, underowned markets.
SPY AVOID
Avoid developed market sovereign debt
We are in a fiscal age with a spending super cycle on AI, climate, and defense. Governments and private sector are spending aggressively, making developed market sovereign debt unattractive. We have been zero weighted in DM sovereign debt for 3 years and see no reason to own Treasuries for years. Underweight bonds and use the freed-up allocation for equities and commodities.
TLT AVOID
Long autonomous defense theme
Autonomous warfare is the number one performer in our model over the last month. The fusion of AI and defense is demonstrated in Ukraine and Iran. Asymmetric autonomous warfare is a major and growing theme.
Autonomous warfare LONG
Long clean energy, Iran catalyst
Clean energy is one of the top five positions in our model. Iran is the single best advertisement for clean energy, as it shows the vulnerability of fossil fuel dependence. Clean energy is no longer 'woke' – it is clean, secure, and available. The spending super cycle supports massive investment.
ICLN LONG
Long oil on spending super cycle
The AI age requires physical commodities; 'digital eats the physical'. We went long oil in the fall when Wall Street expected Brent at $52, driven by the spending super cycle, not geopolitics. We have trimmed but still hold the position. Oil remains a tactical long within a broader commodity overweight.
WTI LONG
Long copper miners, earnings exploding
Copper miners are 'printing money' and will continue to do so for years. The spending super cycle and electrification demand are structural. This is our favorite position right now. Earnings are off the charts, and the market is underappreciating the profit generation.
COPX LONG
Long gold miners, huge margins
Gold miners have enormous margins because they were profitable at $1,500/oz gold, and gold is now $4,500/oz. Their profit margins are better than tech. We are long gold miners as part of our precious metals exposure.
GDX LONG
Watch water, AI demand driver
AI requires a lot of water, and so do people, crops, and animals. We have a position in water as part of our commodity exposure, though it hasn't worked well yet. It remains a core thematic position worth monitoring.
Water WATCH
Long Europe on ceasefire trade
Europe is the big winner from the dual ceasefires – US-Iran deal and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Germany is finally spending with low debt/GDP. European equities are outperforming the US and are exposed to a ceasefire trade. We are quite bullish Europe.
VGK LONG
Long Japan on inflation regime
Japan has transitioned from deflation to inflation. It has the lowest real rates among major economies and needs to raise rates. Rising rates confirm inflation and growth, which is bullish for Japanese equities. Inflation is far better than deflation for a country with 200% debt/GDP.
EWJ LONG
Long China A-shares, defeating deflation
China is one of the last countries that will have to raise interest rates because it is finally defeating deflation. This is very bullish for Chinese corporate profits and domestic investor asset allocation. Domestic investors are shifting from property and low-yield savings into equities. We are very long the A-share market.
ASHR LONG
Long China tech, clean energy leader
China dominates the clean energy cycle and is the biggest winner from Iran. Demand for its EVs, solar panels, batteries, and wind turbines is exploding. China is applying its industrial scale and speed to embodied AI, robotics, autonomous defense, autonomous vehicles, and biotech. We are very bullish China tech across the spectrum.
KWEB LONG
Long EM equities, huge discount
Emerging markets trade at 12x forward earnings versus 21-22x for the US, yet EM earnings growth this year and next is forecast to be better. EM is completely underowned – foreigners own less than 5% of Chinese bonds and stocks. We believe we are in the early innings of a secular leadership change from the US to EM equities.
EEM LONG
Long robotics, top performer
Humanoid robotics is one of the top five performing positions in our thematic model. The robotics ETF is heavily exposed to China, Japan, and Korea. The push toward automation and embodied AI is a key theme in the spending super cycle.
ROBO LONG
Long semiconductors, earnings strength
Semiconductors are one of the top five positions in our model. The global spending super cycle on AI, defense, and electrification is a massive demand driver for semiconductors. Earnings are growing rapidly.
SMH LONG
HIGH
16:46
May 26
May 26
TMCR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long TMCR for US mineral independence.
The Metals Royalty Company (TMCR) is uniquely positioned to benefit from the US push for mineral independence through a royalty model on critical projects like the Nori deep-sea nickel/manganese project and the Mesabi iron ore project, offering a diversified basket with first cash flow expected in 2026 and a first-mover advantage in deep-sea mining royalties.
TMCR LONG
HIGH
16:44
May 25
May 25
BTC 1ST
DDC 1ST
US listed digital asset treasury companies
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin hedges fiat debasement, long-term up.
Bitcoin is a hedge against fiat currency debasement due to its 21 million hard cap supply, has outperformed all major asset classes since inception, and the current drawdown is a mid-cycle reset, not a thesis-breaking event. She continues to accumulate Bitcoin, seeing the drawdown as an opportunity to buy more at lower prices.
BTC LONG
DDC combines profitable business with Bitcoin.
DDC is a digital asset treasury company with a growing, profitable operating food business that provides non-dilutive capital to accumulate Bitcoin. It trades below net asset value (MNAV <1), which is oversold, and offers leveraged exposure to Bitcoin price. Internal targets: 5,000-6,000 BTC by end of 2026 and top 10 globally (14,000 BTC) in 2 years.
DDC LONG
DAT sector to consolidate by 2028.
By the end of 2028, a portion of US listed digital asset treasury companies (DATs) will not exist in their current form; they will consolidate, get acquired, or exit the strategy. Surviving companies will be those with strong capital structures and profitable operating businesses.
US listed digital asset treasury companies WATCH
HIGH
20:26
May 22
May 22
GOOGL 1ST
INTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI capex cycle has 1-2 years left
The AI capex cycle is in its early stages with at least another one to two years of growth, supported by strong demand that outpaces supply, as evidenced by Google's AI product revenue growing 800% and margins increasing, and Intel's CPU orders being full. This is not a bubble because the market is differentiating between successful and overinvesting hyperscalers.
GOOGL LONG
INTC LONG
HIGH
20:03
May 21
May 21
EWU 1ST
SPY 1ST
COPPER
COPX
▾
HIGH
UK equities cheap, undervalued relative to US
UK equities are deeply undervalued compared to the US, with the same companies trading at one time sales vs four times sales. The UK stock market is 'completely broken', making international companies cheap and prone to takeovers. He puts the bulk of his assets in the UK as a value investor.
EWU LONG
US market bubble has 1-2 years upside
The US market is in a bubble that still has 18 months to 2 years to run before a guaranteed crash. The bubble is driven by massive QE-like injections, AI buildout, and onshoring capex. Valuations are extremely high, but he plans to ride the bubble until crazy IPOs signal the top.
SPY LONG
Copper and miners will rally on demand
Copper is set for a major rally driven by AI infrastructure buildout and onshoring, which require massive electrification and construction. Copper miners will benefit, and the trade has a long runway. He sees copper as the commodity that will run, unlike gold.
COPPER LONG
COPX LONG
HIGH
20:55
May 20
May 20
MU 1ST
INTC 1ST
AVAX
BTC
TSM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Micron cheap on PE basis.
Micron is a perfect example of a cyclical memory business that looks cheap on a PE basis, trading at less than 10 times next year's earnings. Despite uncertainty about how long the cycle lasts, the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings power.
MU LONG
Intel benefits from agentic AI CPU scarcity.
Intel is good at making CPUs and there is scarcity in CPUs due to the agentic AI world coming. Beyond government support, the CPU demand from AI agents provides a fundamental reason to own Intel.
INTC LONG
Avalanche captures value from real-world asset tokenization.
The Avalanche ecosystem is positioned to capture value from the tokenization of real-world assets. Traditional finance institutions are building private chains on Avalanche and will eventually connect to the main chain for liquidity, driving value to the AVAX token. Partnerships like Broadridge and Straits X validate this infrastructure.
AVAX WATCH
Bitcoin driven by holder turnover and RIA flows.
Bitcoin is set for a mini bull run driven by two factors: the turnover of old-guard Bitcoin holders who have sold into the ETFs, and the RIA channel flows that are starting to kick in as advisors get educated and recommend Bitcoin to their clients. The macro environment is calm and there is hope for the clarity act.
BTC LONG
TSMC cheap relative to other AI stocks.
TSMC is historically a low-volatility, steady, high-quality company. Its valuation is fair relative to itself but cheap relative to other AI stocks considering its growth rate. There is also a discount due to its Taiwan location and less publicity than US companies. He would allocate a higher weighting to TSMC in his portfolio.
TSM LONG
HIGH
16:30
May 20
May 20
Top 5 crypto tokens index
HYPE
BNB
▾
MED
LONG crypto top-5 index capturing 90% returns
The speaker prefers index products that encapsulate a broad basket of crypto assets, specifically the top five tokens by market cap excluding memecoins and stablecoins, which she notes captures 90% of crypto market returns. She gravitates toward this approach rather than picking individual tokens, analogous to buying the S&P 500 for equities.
Top 5 crypto tokens index LONG
WATCH Hype and BNB for ETF filings
The speaker is monitoring Hype and BNB as potential candidates for future ETF wrappers, noting active filings and regulatory progress. She implies these tokens may become investable through ETF vehicles, making them worth watching for investors.
HYPE WATCH
BNB WATCH
MED
21:42
May 19
May 19
17:03
May 19
May 19
BTC 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin heading to zero.
David Tait believes Bitcoin will go to zero because it correlates with risk assets rather than acting as an offset, and he sees no sustainable long-term use case. He states this as a personal instinct based on his trading experience.
BTC SHORT
Gold should be in portfolio.
David Tait is bullish on gold, arguing that the primary driver is rising sovereign debt levels and fear of unsustainability, not transitory factors like tariffs or wars. He recommends holding gold as a portfolio hedge because it acts as a store of value and is a survivor, especially given high global debt, poor demographics, and the risk of currency debasement.
GLD LONG
HIGH
21:01
May 18
May 18
SPY 1ST
TLT 1ST
SILVER 1ST
GDX 1ST
GLD
▾
HIGH
Market overvalued, short S&P 500.
Peter Grandich plans to short the S&P 500 for the first time since 2008, citing extreme overvaluation, overbought conditions, extreme bullish sentiment, early signs of a market peak (layoffs, expert shorting semiconductors), and a US economy that is in far worse shape than any time other than major declines. He is prepared to short aggressively if the market rallies, acknowledging risks from passive inflows but believing the downside outweighs them.
SPY SHORT
Rates rise, short bonds.
Peter Grandich is bearish on US Treasury bonds, expecting interest rates to rise. He believes a 10-year yield above 5% will cause a stock market correction. He sees rates moving higher due to the US debt crisis, foreign selling of Treasuries, and inflation pressures.
TLT SHORT
Silver has bottomed, long silver.
Peter Grandich believes silver has already bottomed and he has become fundamentally bullish on silver, moving away from his previous view of it as a second-class citizen to gold. He expects silver to rise.
SILVER LONG
Gold miners offer leverage to bull.
Peter Grandich has gone back into three or four gold mining shares, believing that the leverage in the gold bull market now comes from producers and explorers rather than physical metal. He sees gold eventually moving higher and prefers mining stocks for greater capital gains.
GDX LONG
Gold watch above 4800 trigger.
Peter Grandich is watching gold but not currently long. He states that gold needs to close above $4,800 for at least two consecutive days or on a weekly close to flip the technicals and end its corrective phase. Until then, he expects further downside or consolidation.
GLD WATCH
Copper fundamentals best ever, long.
Peter Grandich has consistently favored copper as his favorite metal, calling it the 'turtle in the race' with never-better fundamentals. He believes copper will outperform and has not moved away from it.
COPPER LONG
HIGH
17:09
May 18
May 18
US Onshore Drilling & Oilfield Services
XOP 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Bullish US oilfield services boom
US onshore drilling and oilfield services are entering a cyclical boom, with very cheap valuations and a setup that benefits from the Strait closure but is not dependent on it. The speaker is heavily positioned in these names, expecting significant upside as drilling activity inflects higher.
US Onshore Drilling & Oilfield Services LONG
Favor small-cap US oil producers
Small-cap US oil producers are more attractive than large-cap companies like Exxon because they trade at much lower valuations (EV/EBITDA, EV/BOE per day) and have no production shut-in exposure from the Strait of Hormuz. They can sell all their output at elevated prices, providing pure-play leverage to high oil prices.
XOP LONG
Oil to $150–$250 on supply crunch
Oil prices are set to rise dramatically, potentially to $150–$250 per barrel WTI, driven by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz draining global oil inventories, a cyclical bottom in oil prices, and the risk of non-linear price rationing as storage approaches tank bottoms. The US is a net oil exporter, so higher oil benefits the US economy and supports further price increases.
WTI LONG
HIGH
21:12
May 15
May 15
16:45
May 15
May 15
INDA 1ST
SPY 1ST
TLT 1ST
SOYB 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long India over China.
Gary Shilling is positive on India versus China, citing India's favorable demographics (no population limits), orientation toward technology, and a better legal system inherited from the British. He believes India has stronger long-term growth prospects than China.
INDA LONG
Short major stock indices.
Gary Shilling advises being out of stocks or possibly short major stock indices, expecting a 20-30% correction and a deep recession in 2026. He sees little fundamental support for current stock market exuberance.
SPY SHORT
Long Treasury bonds for safe haven.
Gary Shilling recommends being long Treasury bonds as a safe haven in a risk-off environment, expecting a recession and stock market correction. Despite recent uncertainty, he still believes the safe haven effect of treasuries will be very important.
TLT LONG
Long soybeans on deal expectations.
Gary Shilling agrees that agricultural products, especially soybeans, are the most likely area for a US-China deal during Trump's meeting with Xi. He endorses being long agricultural commodities in anticipation of such an agreement.
SOYB LONG
HIGH
20:54
May 14
May 14
BTC
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin will continue to go higher.
Bitcoin bottomed at 60K and has risen 30% to 80K. The fear and greed index hit single digits (a never-before-seen extreme), and the persistent grind up indicates a strong bid. Momentum suggests Bitcoin will continue to go higher through year-end. The dollar has no bottom, so Bitcoin has no top.
BTC LONG
HIGH
16:41
May 14
May 14
18:11
May 13
May 13
META 1ST
GOOGL 1ST
NVDA 1ST
ETH 1ST
SOL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Tech mega-caps face IPO liquidity drain
Tech mega-cap stocks such as Nvidia, Alphabet (Google), and Meta are overvalued and face selling pressure from upcoming large IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI) that will drain liquidity. He expects a tech selloff as investors rotate capital into those new issues.
META AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
NVDA AVOID
Institutional crypto haves outperform others
Altcoin season will come but in a different form; only cryptocurrencies with institutional backing (ETF, treasury companies, stablecoin narrative) will thrive. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are the 'haves' and should outperform other altcoins.
ETH LONG
SOL LONG
Bitcoin is digital gold savings account
Bitcoin is a digital gold savings account. Melker believes it is a million-dollar asset and prefers buying at current levels (60k-80k) rather than chasing highs. He dollar-cost averages and holds long-term, viewing it as a core savings vehicle.
BTC LONG
HIGH
22:16
May 12
May 12
FRPT 1ST
CAVA 1ST
GDX 1ST
SSRM
TSLA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Fresh Pet faces fatal private-label competition.
Fresh Pet (FRPT) is a short because the stock has further downside after already falling 40% from Chanos's recommendation. Private label competition from Costco Kirkland and Walmart, plus General Mills, will crush revenues and earnings, driving the stock to $15-20.
FRPT SHORT
Cava's valuation is absurd for consumer stock.
Cava (CAVA) is a short because it trades at a 30-40x multiple for a consumer stock in a tough environment, making it unsustainable.
CAVA SHORT
Gold miners are undervalued and rising.
Gold miners are undervalued and poised to rise significantly due to central bank buying, underownership by Western investors, rising earnings, cheap valuations, and de-equitization via buybacks. The GDX/GDXJ are the broad vehicles, but picking individual miners adds alpha.
GDX LONG
GDXJ LONG
SSRM is deeply undervalued and buying back stock.
SSRM is a specific gold miner that is a pure North American producer after selling its Turkish asset, trades at 7x earnings with 70% margins, has $3 billion cash, is buying back 10% of float, and could easily double in a year.
SSRM LONG
Tesla is massively overvalued and capital-destroying.
Tesla (TSLA) is a short because it is dramatically overvalued at a trillion-five market cap despite declining revenues, negative cash flow, and a sum-of-parts valuation of only $50 per share. The self-driving and robot promises are not materializing.
TSLA SHORT
Semiconductors are in a dangerous speculative zone.
Semiconductors are dangerous at these levels because the massive data center buildout driving earnings is not sustainable; many data center projects are being cancelled or delayed, and earnings will normalize lower in a few years. Buying semis now is like taking a low-percentage long shot.
SMH AVOID
Robinhood is imploding after crypto boom.
Robinhood (HOOD) is a short because the stock exploded on crypto activity and is now imploding; the business is unsustainable.
HOOD SHORT
HIGH
17:11
May 12
May 12
BTC 1ST
ABTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin is the best financial instrument
Bitcoin is the dominant digital asset with explosive growth over the last decade, global adoption accelerating, and a perfect financial instrument for both retail and institutional investors. The US has the best energy profile and a pro-crypto administration, making it the leading country for Bitcoin mining and adoption. Bitcoin's value proposition includes 24/7 liquidity, censorship resistance, and protection against hyperinflation, especially in unstable markets.
BTC LONG
American Bitcoin accumulates Bitcoin cheaply
American Bitcoin is a publicly traded company focused on accumulating Bitcoin at the lowest possible cost through efficient mining operations, low SG&A, and negotiated energy contracts. The company's north star is growing Satoshis per share, not selling Bitcoin. With over 7,000 BTC, 28 exahash of compute, and 2.5-3% of global mining hash rate, American Bitcoin offers a pure-play vehicle for Bitcoin exposure with a cost advantage over competitors.
ABTC LONG
HIGH
16:32
May 11
May 11
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short Bitcoin, expect drop below 60k.
Bitcoin is likely to decline from current levels around $83k because the cycle bottom typically takes about a year after the initial high, and multiple indicators (coin days destroyed, 35-month cycle, 23-month post-ATH pattern) point to an October low around $42-55k. Institutional buying from MicroStrategy and ETFs provides a floor but does not prevent a drop below $60k to the 200-week moving average. Terpin's fund is actively shorting, expecting to buy back in the $50-60k range.
BTC SHORT
HIGH
16:21
May 09
May 09
STRC
MSTR
BTC
▾
HIGH
Digital credit with best risk-adjusted return.
STRC (Strategy's preferred stock) is the highest-performing credit instrument with a Sharpe ratio of 2.5-3.0, an 11-12% dividend yield, and superior risk-adjusted returns compared to all other public instruments, driven by Bitcoin as collateral.
STRC LONG
Stock undervalued, company will buy back.
MSTR common stock trades at a big discount to its Bitcoin-backed net asset value (NAV). Strategy is prepared to buy back MSTR when undervalued, which should support the stock price and force fair valuation.
MSTR LONG
Net accumulator of Bitcoin forever.
Saylor expects Strategy to be a net accumulator of Bitcoin forever, buying more Bitcoin than it sells, and expects Bitcoin to appreciate roughly 30% per year due to its nature as digital capital outperforming the S&P by 2-3x.
BTC LONG
HIGH
16:48
May 07
May 07
WTI 1ST
INTC 1ST
GLD 1ST
PPLT
MU 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil cannot sustain without war
Oil prices are unsustainably high driven by war fear; underlying demand is weak with a glut; expects crude to fall to the 60s by year end. Calls it the selling opportunity of a lifetime.
WTI SHORT
Unsustainable rally, expect 30-40% drop
Intel's massive rally is unsustainable like other parabolic moves; he is a seller expecting a 30-40% correction.
INTC SHORT
Gold bottomed, target 6000
Gold made a blowoff bottom at $4100, now in consolidation; once above $4800-$4900 will rally to $6000 by year end. Buy on dips.
GLD LONG
Buy platinum with gold
Platinum is also a buy as part of precious metals basket; comfortable holding for rest of year.
PPLT LONG
Parabolic move unsustainable, short
Micron's 20% overnight surge is a short squeeze and parabolic; such moves always reverse. He has already put on a small short position and will add.
MU SHORT
Buy silver with gold
Silver is in a similar consolidating pattern to gold; buy as part of precious metals basket without thinking.
SILVER LONG
Bitcoin breakout bullish
Bitcoin had a blowoff bottom, consolidated with double bottoms, then broke out to the upside. Bought Bitcoin and Ether stocks. Comfortable buying here.
BTC LONG
Grains are safe hold
He is extremely comfortable owning grain markets right here, viewing them as a safe hold through uncertainty.
DBA LONG
HIGH
21:11
May 06
May 06
QQQ 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long equities, best asset class now.
Equities are the best asset class currently, with money flowing into them and technicals showing continued uptrend. He is long the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and QQQ with a 10% gain target on QQQ.
QQQ LONG
SPY LONG
HIGH
17:03
May 05
May 05
REMX 1ST
▾
MED
Bullish on critical minerals sector
The critical minerals sector is a fantastic investment opportunity due to accelerating demand from military restocking after recent conflicts, AI and defense needs, and the necessity to rebuild stockpiles, leading to scarcity and price appreciation. The west's dependence on Chinese processing and the crisis-like situation with export controls create a structural tailwind for pre-production equity in critical minerals.
REMX LONG
MED
17:51
May 04
May 04
COPPER 1ST
SCMI.V 1ST
▾
HIGH
Copper supply deficit drives prices higher.
Copper faces a structural supply deficit due to underinvestment in new mines over the last decade, declining grades at existing operations, and rising demand from electrification, transmission, battery storage, and broader modern economy uses. This supply-demand imbalance is driving prices to new all-time highs, and the current price near $6/lb reflects the incentive price needed to bring new copper into production. Tariff-related stockpiling and negative treatment charges further support the near-term price.
COPPER LONG
Selkirk Copper First Nation partnership derisks permitting.
Selkirk Copper Mines (TSX-V: SCMI) is uniquely positioned to benefit from the copper bull market. The company operates a past-producing mine in the Yukon with existing infrastructure (roads, grid power, camp). It is the first publicly traded mining company in Canada where a First Nation (Selkirk First Nation) holds a majority equity stake (22%), providing alignment and expected to derisk the repermitting process. The company has completed a 52,288-meter drill program (largest in Yukon in 10 years) with an 87% success rate, discovering high-grade copper-gold-silver mineralization. Upcoming catalysts include a mineral resource estimate and preliminary economic assessment (mid-2026), a feasibility study (mid-2027), and a targeted production restart in mid-2028. The recent $30 million bought deal financing and strong First Nation participation signal market confidence.
SCMI.V LONG
HIGH
02:14
May 03
May 03
SPY 1ST
MU 1ST
UNG 1ST
GLD
BTC FLIP
▾
HIGH
Short S&P 500, late-stage bull market.
The S&P 500 is in a late-stage bull market with narrow leadership, similar to 2000. The index is testing the upper trendline of a parallel channel. Gareth is shorting into resistance, expecting a pullback or reversal. He uses a leg-in approach.
SPY SHORT
Short Micron, target $350.
Micron Technology is hitting a parallel channel resistance with negative RSI divergence. He expects a reversal back to the lower channel at $350, a drop of about $200.
MU SHORT
Long natural gas, breakout above $2.88.
Natural gas is a catch-up trade as oil declines; data centers may drive demand. He sees a potential breakout above $2.88 and is long, putting money behind it.
UNG LONG
Buy gold on pullback to $3,900.
Gold is currently trading as a risk asset and is near-term bearish, but longer-term bullish due to fiscal concerns. He is neutral for swing trading but will buy on pullbacks to key support levels at $3,900 and $3,500.
GLD WATCH
Bitcoin bear flag, target $50,000.
Bitcoin shows a bear flag pattern after its decline; a sideways consolidation with a slight upward tilt typically resolves lower. He sees limited upside unless above $85,000 and expects a drop to about $50,000 (38% decline).
BTC SHORT
HIGH
17:08
May 01
May 01
Molybdenum 1ST
Lithium carbonate
DBC 1ST
Tantalum 1ST
High-tech sector
▾
HIGH
Entering commodity super cycle, go long.
The US and its allies are rearming, which requires vast amounts of raw materials, and geopolitical risks (Iran war, Strait of Hormuz) are disrupting supply. This is driving a commodity super cycle where prices of hard assets will trend up with spikes. Specific commodities like ferro vanadium, molybdenum, lithium, tantalum, aluminum, tin, steel are already surging.
Molybdenum LONG
Lithium carbonate LONG
DBC LONG
Tantalum LONG
Tin LONG
Lithium hydroxide LONG
Niobium LONG
Ferro vanadium LONG
Lithium spotamine LONG
Aluminum LONG
SLX LONG
Pivot away from high tech.
Investors should pivot away from high-tech assets because the commodity super cycle offers better risk-reward. High tech does not benefit from the rearming and resource demand themes. The recommendation is to reduce or avoid exposure to the high-tech sector.
High-tech sector AVOID
Long oil near-term due to spikes.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is causing oil supply shortages and drawing down inventories. Since short-run demand elasticity is very low (0.1), price spikes will continue as long as the strait remains shut. Right now is a good time to be long oil because more spikes are coming.
WTI LONG
Gold to 6-7k, secular bull.
Gold is in a secular bull market and will peak between $6,000 and $7,000 per ounce. It is currently consolidating after a sharp run-up and will take off again. The inverse relationship with real yields may slow it temporarily but does not derail the long-term uptrend.
GLD LONG
HIGH
21:11
Apr 30
Apr 30
QQQ FLIP
BTC 1ST
GOLD
IYR 1ST
SPY FLIP
▾
HIGH
Equities are the best asset now.
Money flows and sentiment are bullish for equities. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are in uptrends, approaching key targets. Equities are the only asset class standing out, and we follow the trend. We are long via QQQ and a band strategy.
QQQ LONG
SPY LONG
Bitcoin is bearish, headed lower.
Bitcoin has a bearish chart pattern (flag) with long-term trend down. It points to 50-52k on the next leg down. Short-term is mixed but odds favor lower. I would consider shorting or buying an inverse ETF if downtrend resumes.
BTC SHORT
Gold and silver are dead money now.
Gold and silver have mixed signals: long-term trend still up but short-term trend down. The consolidation could be a bull flag or lead to deeper pullback. They could trade sideways for years. I am not interested until they scream buy.
GOLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
IYR has bullish pattern, likely higher.
The real estate ETF IYR shows a bullish technical pattern pointing to about 5% upside. Sentiment is shifting to defensive plays, and real estate is benefiting from uncertainty in tech. The pattern is bullish and likely to play out.
IYR LONG
Energy stocks will hold up or move higher.
Energy stocks benefit from high oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. We are still long XOP (energy ETF), having already hit a target. Oil is likely to stay elevated, supporting energy companies.
XOP LONG
HIGH
18:23
Apr 30
Apr 30
SEVA Mining (TSXV: SEVA)
GOLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
SEVA Mining has strong upside potential.
SEVA Mining (TSXV: SEVA) is positioned for upside due to its Cameron Lake project in northwestern Ontario, which has 1.25 million ounces of gold, a simple DSO (direct shipping ore) model, strong management team, supportive jurisdiction, and optionality for growth via exploration or acquisition. The speaker highlights the project's upside potential and the team's capital markets track record.
SEVA Mining (TSXV: SEVA) LONG
Gold bullish on central bank buying.
Gold prices will continue to rise due to central bank buying (especially BRICS nations), strong ETF demand (e.g., launch of a large gold ETF in Hong Kong), and global instability. The speaker references European banks and Wells Fargo projecting a $6,000 gold target as attainable, and believes the buying trend will persist, making gold a favorable investment.
GOLD LONG
HIGH
03:15
Apr 30
Apr 30
XLK 1ST
ITA 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
MED
Tech/AI overvalued, vulnerable to crash.
Technology and AI stocks have rallied excessively and are vulnerable to a sharp decline, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, so investors should be cautious or avoid exposure.
XLK AVOID
Defense stocks benefit from ongoing war.
Defense-related industries should outperform if the Iran war continues, as conflict boosts demand for defense spending and contracts.
ITA LONG
Energy sector gains from rising oil prices.
Energy stocks have upside because oil prices are expected to increase further due to the ongoing Iran war, making the energy sector a clear beneficiary.
XLE LONG
MED
17:35
Apr 29
Apr 29
XLE 1ST
BNO 1ST
XLK 1ST
▾
HIGH
US energy sector benefits from export boost
US crude oil exports are set to increase by up to 500,000 barrels per day due to a Platts rule change effective May 1 that expands the number of approved terminals for loading WTI Midland into the Brent pool. This benefits US oil producers and the broader US energy sector, offsetting some of the global supply loss.
XLE LONG
Oil to $150 on supply disruption
Brent crude oil prices are likely to rise sharply, potentially reaching $150 per barrel by the second half of the year, due to the sustained US-Iran standoff, severe backwardation in futures markets, panic buying by refiners, and the inability to replace lost supply from the Strait of Hormuz. The base case is $100/bbl on average for the rest of 2026, but the risk is skewed to the upside.
BNO LONG
Tech is safe haven due to inelastic capex
Technology stocks may act as a safe haven during the oil shock because large tech firms have inelastic capital expenditure commitments (e.g., AI spending) that will continue regardless of oil price increases. This makes the tech sector relatively resilient compared to other sectors.
XLK LONG
HIGH
01:50
Apr 29
Apr 29
SILVER
NOK 1ST
FLR
GOLD
▾
HIGH
Gold bullish due to war risks
Gold is for war. The metal serves as the currency of conflict, bought in advance of war and sold during war to fund operations. The recent drop in gold coincided with the postponement of the Taiwan invasion risk. For long-term investors, now is a good time to dollar-cost average into gold and silver, building a position over months to years, as the next leg higher is likely once geopolitical tensions reignite.
SILVER LONG
GOLD LONG
Nokia long on AI infrastructure value
Nokia is deeply undervalued and a direct beneficiary of AI-driven mobile infrastructure spending. Nvidia recently invested $1 billion into Nokia to build out 6G and AI capabilities. As a European company with low valuation and a key role in the 6G buildout that is replacing Chinese vendors, Nokia is a compelling long.
NOK LONG
Fluor long on nuclear buildout
Fluor is a rare builder of nuclear power plants. With an immense nuclear energy buildout required to power AI and the broader electrification, Fluor will see massive demand. The stock is not too expensive, making it an attractive way to play the nuclear renaissance.
FLR LONG
HIGH
23:34
Apr 28
Apr 28
22:59
Apr 27
Apr 27
EEM 1ST
XLF 1ST
TLT 1ST
GOLD 1ST
BIZD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Emerging markets benefit from dollar weakness.
The dollar's momentum is on the downside, while emerging markets are seeing real upside momentum. Money supply expansion, commodity demand from AI/robotics, and secular underperformance relative to the S&P all support a long-term shift toward emerging markets.
EEM LONG
Banks and financials are oversold plays.
Banks and financials have experienced the most selling pressure and are oversold. They are likely to rebound as deregulation and money supply expansion provide a tailwind.
XLF LONG
Long duration treasuries benefit from disinflation.
AI is disinflationary or deflationary, which should push long-term yields lower. Long duration Treasuries also serve as a safe haven if geopolitical tensions escalate. This is both a tactical and longer-term investment opportunity.
TLT LONG
Gold momentum broken, not bullish.
Gold has become a momentum trade and that momentum appears broken. While war could spike it, the outlook is lower. He expects gold to probably be down by year-end.
GOLD AVOID
Private credit public equity plays bottoming.
BDCs and private credit public equities have been dragged down by lending to software, but the selloff is an overreaction. The sector has likely bottomed and presents an investment opportunity.
BIZD LONG
Deregulation themes are real opportunity.
Deregulation across cannabis, psychedelics, crypto, and nuclear will unleash growth. The Free Markets ETF (FMKT) is designed to invest in companies benefiting from this deregulation theme.
FMKT LONG
Software overselling has likely bottomed.
Overselling in the software sector is overdone due to AI fears; some companies will survive because liability creates a moat, and the sector has likely bottomed. Selective opportunities exist.
IGV LONG
HIGH
16:39
Apr 27
Apr 27
SLV
BTC
TLT
GLD
USO
▾
HIGH
Silver short from $100 area.
Silver spiked above $100 and is now a prudent short. It has already dropped ~25% from that level but remains vulnerable to further declines, especially if the stock market corrects.
SLV SHORT
Bitcoin glory days over, heading lower.
Bitcoin's glory days are over. It is a poorly performing, high-volatility asset that only bounces when stocks rise. Key support near $64,000, next support $50,000, and ultimate low price cure toward $10,000. It is a short above $75,000.
BTC SHORT
Buy long bond near 5% yield.
The long-term Treasury bond (30-year) is attractive to buy near 5% yield. It is unlikely to stay above that level, and duration buyers will step in. Overweight treasuries for the year.
TLT LONG
Gold overdone, likely to decline.
Gold is extremely overstretched, with volatility at multi-decade highs versus stocks. It has become a highly volatile risk asset that will decline if the stock market falls. The best performance is over and a multi-year range is likely.
GLD SHORT
Crude oil heading to $50.
Crude oil prices are set to decline due to structural surplus supply from US/Canada, technology replacing oil, and political motivation to lower energy prices ahead of midterms. The December crude future at $77 will likely fall toward $50 by midterms.
USO SHORT
Copper prudent short near $6.
Copper is on the prudent short list near $6. Supply-demand has shifted to surplus, and it needs a rising stock market to hold up. If stocks drop 10%, copper could fall 20% given its high beta.
CPER SHORT
S&P 500 overvalued, set to decline.
The S&P 500 is extremely overvalued at 2.4 times GDP, reminiscent of 1929 US and 1989 Japan. Signals from Bitcoin, gold, and volatility point to an eventual decline. He is underweight risk assets and expects a bear market or significant correction.
SPY SHORT
HIGH
00:57
Apr 25
Apr 25
CVNA 1ST
QQQ 1ST
Energy Bonds
BTC 1ST
SKM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short car rental and Carvana overvalued
Avis, Hertz, and Carvana are overvalued names facing headwinds from consumer credit deterioration, reliance on capital markets, and securitization downgrades; shorting them offers asymmetric downside.
CVNA SHORT
HTZ SHORT
CAR SHORT
Short indices after rally exhaustion
Index shorts on IWM, ARK, and QQQ are timely because the bear market rally is exhausted, short covering is fading, and the market remains vulnerable to the Iran war and private credit risks.
QQQ SHORT
IWM SHORT
ARKG SHORT
Midcap energy bonds benefit from oil spike
Energy bonds of midcap companies are a great risk-reward because higher oil prices allow these firms to lock in hedges, improve EBITDA, refinance debt at lower rates, and generate higher cash flows to pay down debt.
Energy Bonds LONG
Bitcoin and Ethereum gain from printing
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum will perform incredibly well in the medium term due to money printing, scarcity, tokenization, and lower costs, especially if the Clarity Act passes.
BTC LONG
ETH LONG
SKM gains from Anthropic IPO
SKM is an indirect play on Anthropic, holding a ~5% stake; Anthropic is likely to IPO above $400 billion given strong free cash flow growth from Claude, making SKM a correlated beneficiary.
SKM LONG
Tanker rates stay high from war disruptions
Tanker companies like FRO will see record profitability because the Iran war has extended shipping distances (ton miles), creating a backlog and keeping day rates high even if a peace treaty is signed.
FRO LONG
SATS undervalued on SpaceX stake
Echoar (SATS) is undervalued given its stake in SpaceX; with SpaceX IPO likely at $1.75 trillion, SATS could be worth over $170 per share versus the current $120, offering a large upside even with timing discount.
SATS LONG
Gold and silver rally on money printing
The biggest money printing in human existence driven by massive fiscal deficits and Fed balance sheet expansion will support gold and silver, leading to a multi-year rally in these real assets.
SILVER LONG
GOLD LONG
HIGH
02:14
Apr 24
Apr 24
BTC 1ST
▾
MED
Bitcoin as private inflation hedge
If Bitcoin is a very good inflation hedge, private investors should consider building substantial Bitcoin reserves to protect against dollar depreciation. The US government does not need such a hedge, but individuals exposed to dollar risk do.
BTC LONG
MED
21:13
Apr 22
Apr 22
XLE
SILVER
GOLD
BTC
COPPER
▾
HIGH
Long oil stocks outside conflict zone.
He remains long oil stocks that are not too involved in the Gulf region, as they are better positioned amid the conflict.
XLE NEUTRAL
Silver deficit supports higher prices.
Silver has been in deficit for the last five or six years and is likely to stay in deficit; it is a high-tech mineral being the most reflective and conductive, so it has industrial demand beyond jewelry.
SILVER NEUTRAL
Gold is money amid fiat collapse.
Gold is a safe haven because war destroys currencies, the dollar is unsecured liability of a bankrupt government, gold is not someone else's liability, and the world will go back to using gold as money.
GOLD NEUTRAL
Bitcoin promising but unproven.
Bitcoin is favorable as an asset that is not someone else's liability, but it is relatively new and hasn't stood the test of time yet, so it's promising but unproven.
BTC WATCH
Copper demand up from rearming.
Copper demand will increase because the world is rearming and weapons production uses copper, despite initial consumer spending dip, and copper mines are capital intensive.
COPPER NEUTRAL
Commodities are cheap, buy them.
Commodities and commodity stocks are historically very cheap relative to the financial end of the market, so he likes to buy them as they are undervalued.
GSG LONG
DBC LONG
China and East Asia rising.
China and East Asia will continue to rise because they have better tax and debt situations, no welfare system, are sociologically homogeneous, and not taking in migrants, making them more stable and growing.
East Asia NEUTRAL
FXI NEUTRAL
Oil prices will rise due to war damage.
Oil is underpriced at $90/barrel and will go much higher because war damage has destroyed refining and pumping capacities in the Gulf, and the conflict is ongoing.
WTI NEUTRAL
Short US bonds as rates rise.
Interest rates will rise back to levels of the early 80s, bonds fluctuate inversely with rates, the dollar will lose value, and there's default risk, so bonds are not good and he'd be short US government bonds.
TLT NEUTRAL
US stocks overvalued, avoid.
US stock market is at or around an all-time high by all parameters of what constitutes cheap and dear, and if a depression comes, could lose 50% of capital, so he has no interest in US stocks.
SPY AVOID
Real estate risky as rates rise.
Real estate floats on a sea of debt, and if interest rates go up, real estate is in trouble because borrowing becomes difficult.
XLRE AVOID
HIGH
22:01
Apr 21
Apr 21
GOLD 1ST
GDXJ 1ST
USD 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold has value despite recent gains.
Axel Merk is heavily invested in gold and precious metals because he sees good value despite the recent runup, and gold tends to benefit from policy makers' reactions to supply shocks and monetary policy inefficiencies.
GOLD LONG
Junior miners benefit from lower rates.
Junior gold miners benefit from lower interest rates and easing credit conditions, and there is good value in the sector because the market prices in lower precious metals prices, leading to favorable margins and leverage.
GDXJ LONG
US dollar to weaken due to deficits.
Due to fiscal dominance, unsustainable deficits, and global fragmentation, the US dollar is likely to weaken in the medium term as the best growth debt can buy is associated with a weaker currency.
USD SHORT
Avoid shorting long bonds due to carry.
Shorting the long bond is not advisable because it is a negative carry trade that requires continuously paying interest, and there are better, less costly ways to play the theme of higher yields.
TLT AVOID
HIGH
20:07
Apr 21
Apr 21
GOLD 1ST
▾
MED
Dollar crisis could boost gold.
A crisis of confidence in the dollar could develop due to concerns about U.S. public debt sustainability, political system stability, and Fed independence, leading to a flight away from the dollar toward gold and other less liquid assets.
GOLD LONG
MED
17:02
Apr 20
Apr 20
GOLD 1ST
SILVER FLIP
▾
HIGH
Gold to exceed $5,600 in 3-4 months.
Gold has completed an ABC correction after hitting an all-time high in January, and is now in a new motive phase (Elliot wave count) that should take it above $5,600 over the next 3-4 months, possibly up to 6 months.
GOLD LONG
Silver to reach new all-time highs.
Silver has also completed an ABC correction and is in a new motive phase, similar to gold, and will reach new all-time highs this year, having previously rallied 165% from late October to January.
SILVER LONG
HIGH
00:52
Apr 20
Apr 20
04:12
Apr 18
Apr 18
Misium
Alberts
▾
HIGH
Overhyped AI pivot stocks are prime shorts.
The stock prices of Alberts and Misium have surged due to hype over their pivots to AI, but there is no justification for such increases in free cash flow, making them overvalued and prime candidates for shorting.
Misium NEUTRAL
Alberts NEUTRAL
HIGH
18:08
Apr 17
Apr 17
UGA
▾
HIGH
Iran conflict driving gas prices and inflation.
The war in Iran has caused gas prices to surge and heightened short-run inflation expectations, with consumers concerned about further price increases due to supply disruptions, which could lead to economic slowdown and impact consumer spending.
UGA WATCH
HIGH
21:01
Apr 16
Apr 16
Bitcoin Quantum Network Token
▾
HIGH
Buy quantum-secure asset as hedge.
Quantum computing poses an existential risk to Bitcoin and other blockchains by enabling theft of private keys; purchasing a quantum-secure asset, such as the Bitcoin Quantum Network token, can serve as a hedge against this risk, offsetting potential value decline in vulnerable assets.
Bitcoin Quantum Network Token LONG
HIGH
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